IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eti/dpaper/14055.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Natural Disaster and Natural Selection

Author

Listed:
  • UCHIDA Hirofumi
  • MIYAKAWA Daisuke
  • HOSONO Kaoru
  • ONO Arito
  • UCHINO Taisuke
  • UESUGI Iichiro

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate whether natural selection works for firm exit after a massive natural disaster. By using a unique data set of more than 84,000 firms after the Tohoku Earthquake, we examined the impact of firm efficiency on firm bankruptcy both inside and outside of the earthquake-affected areas. We find that more efficient firms are less likely to go bankrupt both inside and outside of the affected areas, which indicates the existence of natural selection. However, we also find that firms located inside the earthquake-affected areas are less likely to go bankrupt than those located outside of the areas. We also applied the same methodology to the case of the Kobe Earthquake, and find qualitatively similar results.

Suggested Citation

  • UCHIDA Hirofumi & MIYAKAWA Daisuke & HOSONO Kaoru & ONO Arito & UCHINO Taisuke & UESUGI Iichiro, 2014. "Natural Disaster and Natural Selection," Discussion papers 14055, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    • Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:14055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/14e055.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nishimura, Kiyohiko G. & Nakajima, Takanobu & Kiyota, Kozo, 2005. "Does the natural selection mechanism still work in severe recessions?: Examination of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 53-78, September.
    2. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 2005. "The Cost of Recessions Revisited: A Reverse-Liquidationist View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 313-341.
    4. Shin‐ichi Fukuda & Jun‐ichi Nakamura, 2011. "Why Did ‘Zombie’ Firms Recover in Japan?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34, pages 1124-1137, July.
    5. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
    6. Matthew A. COLE & Robert J R ELLIOTT & OKUBO Toshihiro & Eric STROBL, 2013. "Natural Disasters and Plant Survival: The impact of the Kobe earthquake," Discussion papers 13063, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    7. Armen A. Alchian, 1950. "Uncertainty, Evolution, and Economic Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58, pages 211-211.
    8. Kyoji Fukao & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2006. "Why Did Japan'S Tfp Growth Slow Down In The Lost Decade? An Empirical Analysis Based On Firm‐Level Data Of Manufacturing Firms," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 57(2), pages 195-228, June.
    9. Shin-Ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Jouchi Nakajima, 2006. "Deteriorating Bank Health and Lending in Japan: Evidence from Unlisted Companies under Financial Distress," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 482-501.
    10. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1996. "On the Timing and Efficiency of Creative Destruction," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 805-852.
    11. Sakai, Koji & Uesugi, Iichiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1970-1981, August.
    12. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Munehisa Kasuya & Jouchi Nakajima, 2005. "Deteriorating Bank Health and Lending in Japan: Evidence from Unlisted Companies Undergoing Financial Distress," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-364, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Noy, Ilan & Vu, Tam Bang, 2010. "The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 345-354, August.
    14. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric, 1995. "The Capital Crunch: Neither a Borrower nor a Lender Be," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 625-638, August.
    15. Alan Ahearne & Naoki Shinada, 2005. "Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 363-381, December.
    16. Loayza, Norman V. & Olaberría, Eduardo & Rigolini, Jamele & Christiaensen, Luc, 2012. "Natural Disasters and Growth: Going Beyond the Averages," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1317-1336.
    17. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
    18. Caballero, Ricardo J & Hammour, Mohamad L, 1994. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1350-1368, December.
    19. Bertin, Amy L & Bresnahan, Timothy F & Raff, Daniel M G, 1996. "Localized Competition and the Aggregation of Plant-Level Increasing Returns: Blast Furnaces, 1929-1935," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 241-266, April.
    20. Mark Skidmore & Hideki Toya, 2002. "Do Natural Disasters Promote Long-Run Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 664-687, October.
    21. Andrea Leiter & Harald Oberhofer & Paul Raschky, 2009. "Creative Disasters? Flooding Effects on Capital, Labour and Productivity Within European Firms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 333-350, July.
    22. Bresnahan, Timothy F. & Raff, Daniel M. G., 1991. "Intra-Industry Heterogeneity and the Great Depression: The American Motor Vehicles Industry, 1929–1935," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 317-331, June.
    23. Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Jaroslava Hlouskova & Michael Obersteiner, 2008. "Natural Disasters As Creative Destruction? Evidence From Developing Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 214-226, April.
    24. Kaoru Hosono & Daisuke Miyakawa & Taisuke Uchino & Makoto Hazama & Arito Ono & Hirofumi Uchida & Iichiro Uesugi, 2016. "Natural Disasters, Damage To Banks, And Firm Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1335-1370, November.
    25. Se-Jik Kim, 2004. "Macro Effects of Corporate Restructuring in Japan," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 457-492, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Uchida, Hirofumi & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Ono, Arito & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2015. "Financial shocks, bankruptcy, and natural selection," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 123-135.
    2. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Matsuura, Toshiyuki & Okubo, Fumihiro, 2015. "Firm-level impacts of natural disasters on production networks: Evidence from a flood in Thailand," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 244-259.
    3. Ono, Arito & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Uchida, Hirofumi & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2014. "Transaction Partners and Firm Relocation Choice: Evidence from the Tohoku Earthquake," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 11, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    4. Aloysius Gunadi Brata & Henri L. F. De Groot & Wouter Zant, 2018. "Shaking up the Firm Survival: Evidence from Yogyakarta (Indonesia)," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-14, April.
    5. Fujin Zhou & Wouter Botzen, 2021. "Firm Level Evidence of Disaster Impacts on Growth in Vietnam," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(2), pages 277-322, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uchida, Hirofumi & Miyakawa, Daisuke & Hosono, Kaoru & Ono, Arito & Uchino, Taisuke & Uesugi, Iichiro, 2015. "Financial shocks, bankruptcy, and natural selection," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 123-135.
    2. HOSONO Kaoru, 2009. "Financial Crisis, Firm Dynamics and Aggregate Productivity in Japan," Discussion papers 09012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Sakai, Koji & Uesugi, Iichiro & Watanabe, Tsutomu, 2010. "Firm age and the evolution of borrowing costs: Evidence from Japanese small firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1970-1981, August.
    4. Ogura, Yoshiaki & Okui, Ryo & Saito, Yukiko Umeno, 2015. "Network-Motivated Lending Decisions," HIT-REFINED Working Paper Series 29, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Iichiro Uesugi, 2008. "Efficiency of Credit Allocation and Effectiveness of Government Credit Guarantees: Evidence from Japanese Small Businesses," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 08-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    6. Uchida, Hirofumi, 2020. "Natural selection: A review of studies on firms’ exit and efficiency," MPRA Paper 103938, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oudom Hean & Nattanicha Chairassamee, 2021. "Household consumption expenditure in Thailand during the first COVID-19 lockdown," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 28(2), pages 1-37, December.
    8. Akiyoshi, Fumio & Kobayashi, Keiichiro, 2010. "Banking crisis and productivity of borrowing firms: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 141-150, August.
    9. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2014. "What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 217-235.
    10. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Andrzej Torój, 2019. "In Search of an Appropriate Lower Bound. The Zero Lower Bound vs. the Positive Lower Bound under Discretion and Commitment," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 1028-1053, November.
    11. De Veirman, Emmanuel & Levin, Andrew T., 2012. "When did firms become more different? Time-varying firm-specific volatility in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 578-601.
    12. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2022. "Credit Misallocation During the European Financial Crisis," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(641), pages 391-423.
    13. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2020. "The time has come for banks to say goodbye: New evidence on bank roles and duration effects in relationship terminations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    14. Carlos Carreira & Paulino Teixeira, 2016. "Entry and exit in severe recessions: lessons from the 2008–2013 Portuguese economic crisis," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 591-617, April.
    15. Yasushi Hamao & Kenji Kutsuna & Joe Peek, 2012. "Nice to be on the A-list," Working Papers 12-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Pauline AVRIL & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Camélia TURCU, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2913, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    17. Imai, Kentaro, 2016. "A panel study of zombie SMEs in Japan: Identification, borrowing and investment behavior," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-107.
    18. Kousky, Carolyn, 2014. "Informing climate adaptation: A review of the economic costs of natural disasters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 576-592.
    19. F. Zhou & W.J.W. Botzen, 2017. "The Impact of Natural Disasters on Firm Growth in Vietnam:: Interaction with Financial Constraints," Working Papers 17-20, Utrecht School of Economics.
    20. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:14055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: TANIMOTO, Toko (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rietijp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.