Interest rates close to zero, post-crisis restructuring and natural interest rate
AbstractCentral banks seem not to account for the influence of interest rates close to zero on the natural interest rate after the bursting of the asset bubble which triggered financial crisis. We claim that this omission may have deleterious consequences. Should interest rates close to zero persistently decrease natural interest rates, that would mean fall in TFP growth and more limited central bank’s capacity to influence aggregate demand and price dynamics. We explain that interest rates close to zero may persistently reduce the natural interest rate because in economy requiring post-crisis restructuring they impede that process and facilitate forbearance lending, which crowds viable economic agents out of credit through a number of channels. To reduce these risks central bank could voluntarily set the lower bound for interest rates cuts at, say, 2%. The bound appropriate for a given economy should be a function of its growth and interest rates in the pre-crisis period. We argue that irrespective of central bank’s credibility such a change in the monetary policy conducting in economies requiring post-crisis restructuring would bring better outcomes than keeping there interest rates close to zero.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36989.
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision:
interest rates close to zero; monetary policy; new Keynesian analytical framework; restructuring; credit;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-MAC-2012-03-08 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2012-03-08 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2003.
"Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan,"
NBER Working Papers
9643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 2005. "Unnatural Selection: Perverse Incentives and the Misallocation of Credit in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1144-1166, September.
- R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
- Alan Ahearne & Naoki Shinada, 2005.
"Zombie firms and economic stagnation in Japan,"
International Economics and Economic Policy,
Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 363-381, December.
- Nakakuki, Masayuki & Otani, Akira & Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 2004.
"Distortions in Factor Markets and Structural Adjustments in the Economy,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 22(2), pages 71-99, May.
- Masayuki Nakakuki & Akira Otani & Shigenori Shiratsuka, 2004. "Distortions in Factor Markets and Structural Adjustments in the Economy," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d04-26, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009.
"Financial Crises and Economic Activity,"
NBER Working Papers
15379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Mathias Trabandt & Karl Walentin, 2010.
"DSGE Models for Monetary Policy Analysis,"
NBER Working Papers
16074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Yasushi Hamao & Jianping Mei & Yexiao Xu, 2007. "Unique Symptoms of Japanese Stagnation: An Equity Market Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 901-923, 06.
- James Bullard, 2010. "Seven faces of "the peril"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 339-352.
- Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001.
"Measuring the natural rate of interest,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Michał Brzoza-Brzezina, 2006. "The information content of the neutral rate of interest," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 14(2), pages 391-412, 04.
- Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.