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The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland

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  • Michal Brzoza-Brzezina

    (National Bank of Poland & Warsaw School of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper, I use a structural VAR model and the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland. I show how the NRI can yield important information for a central banker. First, estimation of the NRI can be helpful for monetary authorities, seeking to stabilize inflation after a long process of disinflation. Second, for a country trying to join a monetary union there exists an additional information content of the estimated NRI. The bigger the difference between the candidates and the Unions natural rates, the more likely the “Portuguese” scenario of a widening current account after adopting the common currency.

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File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0402/0402007.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402007.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0402007

Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on WinXP; pages: 29; figures: 6
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Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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Keywords: Poland; natural rate of interest; SVAR; transition economy;

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References

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  6. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2003. "Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest: A SVAR Approach," Macroeconomics 0301008, EconWPA.
  7. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  9. Markku Lanne, 2006. "Nonlinear dynamics of interest rate and inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1157-1168.
  10. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. James Bullard, 1999. "Testing long-run monetary neutrality propositions: lessons from the recent research," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 57-77.
  12. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1983. "Can the central bank peg real interest rates? : a survey of classical and neoclassical opinion," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 12-21.
  13. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
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  15. Jesus Crespo-Cuaremsa & Ernest Gnan & Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald, 2003. "Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 60-80 Bank for International Settlements.
  16. Peter F. Christoffersen & Robert F. Westcott, 1999. "Is Poland Ready for Inflation Targeting?," IMF Working Papers 99/41, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Measuring the Natural Interest Rate for the Peruvian Economy," Working Papers 2006-003, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  2. Jakub Borowski & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2004. "Designing Poland's Macroeconomic Strategy on the Way to the Euro Area," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 10, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).

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