The Information Content of the Natural Rate of Interest: The Case of Poland
AbstractIn this paper, I use a structural VAR model and the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of interest (NRI) in Poland. I show how the NRI can yield important information for a central banker. First, estimation of the NRI can be helpful for monetary authorities, seeking to stabilize inflation after a long process of disinflation. Second, for a country trying to join a monetary union there exists an additional information content of the estimated NRI. The bigger the difference between the candidates and the Unions natural rates, the more likely the “Portuguese” scenario of a widening current account after adopting the common currency.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0402007.
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 04 Feb 2004
Date of revision:
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Poland; natural rate of interest; SVAR; transition economy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-02-08 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2004-02-08 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2004-02-08 (Monetary Economics)
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