Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members
AbstractIn this paper we analyse the potential for lending booms in three biggest new EU member states (Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland) during the process of Euro adoption. Experience of old members (Greece, Ireland and Portugal) as well as econometric evidence speak in favour of strong increases in credit in Hungary and Poland and against such an event in the Czech Republic. However, the expected lending booms are smaller than those Ireland and Portugal witnessed recently. We state that, given the current data set, no substantial risk to the banking sectors of the new member states should be expected. We also find that the monetary consequences of these booms for the Euro-area as a whole will be almost negligible.
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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
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lending booms; Euro area; banking sector stability; new member states;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-04-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2005-04-16 (European Economics)
- NEP-FIN-2005-04-16 (Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2005-04-16 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-TRA-2005-04-16 (Transition Economics)
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