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Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries

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  • Adam Gersl

    (Joint Vienna Institute/Charles University in Prague)

  • Jakub Seidler

    (Czech National Bank/Charles University in Prague)

Abstract

Excessive credit growth is often considered to be an indicator of future problems in the financial sector. This paper examines the issue of how best to determine whether the observed level of private sector credit is excessive in the context of the “countercyclical capital buffer”, a macroprudential tool proposed in the new regulatory framework of Basel III by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. An empirical analysis of selected Central and Eastern European countries, including the Czech Republic, provides alternative estimates of excessive private credit and shows that the HP filter calculation proposed by the Basel Committee is not necessarily a suitable indicator of excessive credit growth for converging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2012. "Excessive Credit Growth and Countercyclical Capital Buffers in Basel III: An Empirical Evidence from Central and East European Countries," ACTA VSFS, University of Finance and Administration, vol. 6(2), pages 91-107.
    • Handle: RePEc:prf:journl:v:6:y:2012:i:2:p:91-107
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing Credit Gaps in CESEE Based on Levels Justified by Fundamentals – A Comparison Across Different Estimation Approaches (Mariarosaria Comunale, Markus Eller, Mathias Lahnsteiner)," Working Papers 229, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    3. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Roberta Fiori & Enrico Sette, 2015. "A note on the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer in Italy," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 278, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. G. Farrell, 2016. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Real-Time Credit-To-GDP Gap Estimates: A South African Perspective," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 1-20, April.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Namibia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/277, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Jakub Dolezal, 2023. "Business and financial cycles of major global economies," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - September 2023, pages 14-20, Czech National Bank.
    7. Mariarosaria Comunale & Markus Eller & Mathias Lahnsteiner, 2020. "Assessing credit gaps in CESEE based on levels justified by fundamentals – a comparison across different estimation approaches," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 74, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Alessi, Lucia & Detken, Carsten, 2018. "Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 215-225.
    9. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Yannick Lucotte & Nicolas Reigl, 2022. "The evolution and heterogeneity of credit procyclicality in Central and Eastern Europe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 911-942, January.
    10. Saurabh Ghosh, 2015. "Building on the Countercyclical Consensus: An Empirical Test," Working Papers wp08, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    11. Valentina Flamini & Pierluigi Bologna & Fabio Di Vittorio & Rasool Zandvakil, 2019. "Credit Cycle and Capital Buffers in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2019/039, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Rami Obeid & Bassam Awad, 2018. "Interaction of Monetary and Macro-prudential Policies: The Case of Jordan- Credit Gap as an Example," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 5(1), pages 99-111.
    13. Cecilia Dassatti & Alejandro Pena & Jorge Ponce & Magdalena Tubio, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Case of Uruguay," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 251-285, July-Dece.
    14. Hasanov, Rashad & Bhattacharya, Prasad Sankar, 2019. "Do political factors influence banking crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 305-318.
    15. Glocker, Christian & Url, Thomas, 2022. "Financial sector rescue programs: Domestic and cross border effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Irina – Raluca Badea, 2015. "The Role Of Countercyclical Measures In Controlling The Procyclical Behaviour Of Banks," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(43), pages 210-218.
    17. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Costa, Ágata, 2023. "Credit behavior and financial stability in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    18. Dieckelmann, Daniel, 2021. "Market sentiment, financial fragility, and economic activity: The role of corporate securities issuance," Discussion Papers 2021/6, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    19. Mathias Drehmann & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "The credit-to-GDP gap and countercyclical capital buffers: questions and answers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit growth; financial crisis; countercyclical capital buffer; Basel III;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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