A Re-assessment of Credit Development in European Transition Economies
AbstractThe aim of the paper is to re-assess the bank credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and to provide new estimates of the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level. Using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations, our results suggest an “excessive” credit development for most of the studied economies until 2007. After this period, while credit has continued to remain excessive in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, it has decelerated in the other countries. However, while the results suggest a possibility of “credit crunch” in the Baltic republics and, to a less extent, in Croatia, credit deceleration may lead to “soft landing” for the Czech Republic, Romania and Slovenia.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 22692.
Date of creation: Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Bank Credit; Dynamic Panel; CEECs;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
- C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-05-22 (Banking)
- NEP-TRA-2010-05-22 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Norman Loayza & Romain Rancière, 2004.
"Financial development, financial fragility and growth,"
Economics Working Papers
855, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
- Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2005. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/170, International Monetary Fund.
- Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2002. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 145, Central Bank of Chile.
- Romain Ranciere & Norman Loayza, 2004. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility and Growth," Working Papers 192, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2002. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 684, CESifo Group Munich.
- Loayza, Norman & Ranciere, Romain, 2004. "Financial development, financial fragility, and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3431, The World Bank.
- Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000.
"Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime,"
Journal of Economic Theory,
Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-34, May.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1997. "Financial fragility and the exchange rate regime," Working Paper 97-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Fragility and the Exchange Rate Regime," NBER Working Papers 6469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 1989.
"Quality Ladders in the Theory of Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Coudert, V. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "La croissance des crédits dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale est-elle excessive ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 172, pages 39-67.
- Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001.
"Lending Booms: Latin America and the World,"
NBER Working Papers
8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006.
"Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?,"
Focus on European Economic Integration,
Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
- Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 0687, European Central Bank.
- Levine, Ross, 1996.
"Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1678, The World Bank.
- Ross Levine, 1997. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(2), pages 688-726, June.
- Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
- Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998.
"The Asian liquidity crisis,"
98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Fabrizio Coricelli, 1993. "Output Collapse in Eastern Europe: The Role of Credit," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 32-52, March.
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998.
"The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,"
NBER Working Papers
6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
- Aghion, Philippe & Howitt, Peter, 1992. "A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Scholarly Articles 12490578, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Calvo, Guillermo A & Coricelli, Fabrizio, 1992. "Stagflationary Effects of Stabilization Programs in Reforming Socialist Countries: Enterprise-Side and Household-Side Factors," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(1), pages 71-90, January.
- Asli DemirgÃ¼Ã§-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
- Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
- Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.