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Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?

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  • Sirtaine, Sophie
  • Skamnelos, Ilias
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    Abstract

    High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the"old"Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4281.

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    Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
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    Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4281

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    Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Financial Intermediation; Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring; Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate;

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    References

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    1. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Powell, Andrew & Hollar, Ivanna Vladkova, 2002. "Banking on foreigners : the behavior of international Bank lending to Latin America, 1985-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2893, The World Bank.
    2. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May.
    3. Richard J. Herring & Susan Wachter, 1999. "Real Estate Booms and Banking Busts: An International Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    4. Egert, Balázs & Backé, Peter & Zumer, Tina, 2006. "Credit growth in Central and Eastern Europe: new (over)shooting stars?," Working Paper Series 0687, European Central Bank.
    5. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    6. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michal, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States: will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 0543, European Central Bank.
    7. Ralph de Haas & Iman van Lelyveld, 2003. "Foreign Banks and Credit Stability in Central and Eastern Europe: A Panel Data Analysis," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 109, Netherlands Central Bank.
    8. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    11. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
    12. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    13. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part I: A Macroeconomic Overview," NBER Working Papers 6833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Mucci, Fabio & Revoltella, Debora, 2006. "Household Credit in the New Europe: Lending Boom or Sustainable Growth?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
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    Cited by:
    1. Festic, Mejra & Kavkler, Alenka & Repina, Sebastijan, 2011. "The macroeconomic sources of systemic risk in the banking sectors of five new EU member states," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 310-322, February.
    2. Meixing DAI, 2009. "External constraint and financial crises with balance sheet effects," Working Papers of BETA 2009-02, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mara Pirovano, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Paper Research 246, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Kalyuzhnova, Yelena & Nygaard, Christian, 2009. "Resource nationalism and credit growth in FSU countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4700-4710, November.

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