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Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?

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Author Info
Sirtaine, Sophie
Skamnelos, Ilias
Abstract

High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the"old"Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4281.

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Date of creation: 01 Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4281

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Keywords: Banks&Banking Reform; Financial Intermediation; Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring; Economic Theory&Research; Investment and Investment Climate;

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  9. de Haas, Ralph & van Lelyveld, Iman, 2006. "Foreign banks and credit stability in Central and Eastern Europe. A panel data analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1927-1952, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Martinez Peria, Maria Soledad & Powell, Andrew & Hollar, Ivanna Vladkova, 2002. "Banking on foreigners : the behavior of international Bank lending to Latin America, 1985-2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2893, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bongini, Paola & Laeven, Luc & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2002. "How good is the market at assessing bank fragility? A horse race between different indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1011-1028, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Asli Demirguc-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 3. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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