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Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?

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Author Info

  • Gergely Kiss

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Márton Nagy

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Balázs Vonnák

    ()
    (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

Credit to the private sector has been growing very rapidly in a number of Central and Eastern European countries in recent years. The main question is whether this dynamics is an equilibrium convergence process or may rather pose stability risks. Using panel econometric techniques, this paper attempts to identify the equilibrium credit/GDP levels of the new EU countries, disentangling the observed growth into an equilibrium trend and an excess (boom) component. In the paper the pooled mean group estimator was used for its flexibility and efficiency. Using instrumental variable technique we tested whether long run endogeneity affects the consistency. The estimations show that large part of the credit growth in new member states can be explained by the catching-up process, and, in general, credit/GDP ratios are below the levels consistent with macroeconomic fundamentals. However, in Latvia and Estonia credit growth is found to be significantly faster than what would be justified along the equilibrium path.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary) in its series MNB Working Papers with number 2006/10.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2006/10

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Related research

Keywords: financial deepening; credit growth; transition economies; panel econometrics; endogeneity bias.;

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References

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  1. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
  2. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October.
  3. Klaus Neusser & Maurice Kugler, 1998. "Manufacturing Growth And Financial Development: Evidence From Oecd Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 638-646, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Julia Kiraly & Judit Antal & Marton Nagy & Viktor Szabo, 2008. "Retail credit expansion and external finance in Hungary: lessons from the recent past (1998–2007)," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial globalisation and emerging market capital flows, volume 44, pages 221-233 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Chmielewski, Tomasz & Niedźwiedzińska, Joanna, 2007. "Substitution between domestic and foreign currency loans in Central Europe. Do central banks matter?," MPRA Paper 6759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Slawomir Zajaczkowski & Dawid Zochowski, 2007. "The distribution and dispersion of debt burden ratios among households in Poland and its implications for financial stability," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Measuring the financial position of the household sector", Basel, 30-31 August 2006 - Volume 2, volume 26, pages 62-74 Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Bruno Albuquerque & Ursel Baumann & Georgi Krustev, 2014. "Has US Household Deleveraging Ended? A Model-Based Estimate of Equilibrium Debt," Working Papers w201404, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Hansen, Niels-Jakob & Sulla, Olga, 2013. "El crecimiento del crédito en América Latina: ¿Desarrollo financiero o boom crediticio?," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 25, pages 51-80.
  6. Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2009. "Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth," Post-Print halshs-00384566, HAL.
  7. Sirtaine, Sophie & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2007. "Credit growth in emerging Europe : a cause for stability concerns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4281, The World Bank.
  8. Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2010. "A Re-assessment of Credit Development in European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 22692, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1.
  10. Eichengreen, Barry & Steiner, Katharina, 2008. "Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7027, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Irène Andreou & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "Financial Vulnerability in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Working Papers 0907, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  12. Lahura, Erick & Chang, Giancarlo & Salazar, Oscar, 2013. "Identificación de Episodios de Auge Crediticio: Una propuesta Metodológica con Fundamentos Económicos," Working Papers 2013-011, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  13. Coudert, V. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "Is credit growth in central and eastern European countries excessive?," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 63-102, Autumn.
  14. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2010. "The Trade Deficit and Banking Sector Results in Romania and Bulgaria," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 12(27), pages 199-213, February.
  15. PIROVANO, Mara, 2013. "Household and firm leverage, capital flows and monetary policy in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013014, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  16. Erdinç, Didar, 2009. "From credit crunch to credit boom: transitional challenges in Bulgarian banking, 1999-2006," MPRA Paper 10735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Mejra Festić & Sebastijan Repina & Alenka Kavkler, 2009. "The overheating of five EU new member states and cyclicality of systemic risk in the banking sector," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 219-232, May.

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