This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Aaron Tornell
Frank Westermann

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

In this paper we characterize empirically the comovements of macro variables typically observed in middle income countries, as well as the boom-bust cycle' that has been observed during the last two decades. We find that many countries that have liberalized their financial markets, have witnessed the development of lending booms. Most of the time the boom gradually decelerates. But sometimes the boom ends in twin currency and banking crises, and is followed by a protracted credit crunch that outlives a short-lived recession. We also find that during lending booms there is a real appreciation and the nontradables (N) sector grows faster than the tradables (T) sector. Meanwhile, the opposite is true in the aftermath of crisis. We argue that these comovements are generated by the interaction of two characteristics of financing typical of middle income countries: risky currency mismatch and asymmetric financing opportunities across the N- and T-sectors.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w9219.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9219.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as Tornell, Aaron and Frank Westermann. "Boom-Bust Cycles In Middle Income Countries," International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 2002, v49(Spec), 111-155.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9219

Note: IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Phone: 617-868-3900
Email:
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  4. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Capital Markets and the Instability of Open Economies," Working Papers 99.01 update, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: The Effects of Financial Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 9787, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Borensztein, Eduardo & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2002. "Financial crisis and credit crunch in Korea: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 853-875, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chang, R. & Velasco, A., 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: A Canonical Model," Working Papers 98-21, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  10. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1999. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Working Papers 99018, Stanford University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Berger, Helge & Sturm, Jan-Egbert & Haan, Jakob de, 2000. "An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  13. Gelos, R. Gaston & Werner, Alejandro M., 2002. "Financial liberalization, credit constraints, and collateral: investment in the Mexican manufacturing sector," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," NBER Working Papers 8249, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 2000. "International Capital Inflows, Domestic Financial Intermediation and Financial Crises under Imperfect Information," NBER Working Papers 7902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-90, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Schiffer, M. & Weder, B., 2001. "Firm Size and the Business Environment: Worldwide Survey Results," Papers 43, World Bank - International Finance Corporation.
  18. Ber, Hedva & Blass, Asher & Yosha, Oved, 2002. "Monetary Policy in an Open Economy: The Differential Impact on Exporting and Non-Exporting Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 3191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bordo, Michael D. & Schwartz, Anna J., 2000. "Measuring real economic effects of bailouts: historical perspectives on how countries in financial distress have fared with and without bailouts," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 81-167, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  20. McKinnon, Ronald I & Pill, Huw, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Moral Hazard and International Overborrowing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 19-38, Autumn.
  21. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "Paper tigers?: A model of the Asian crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1211-1236, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  23. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Enrica Detragiache & Poonam Gupta & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 2000. "Inside the Crisis - An Empirical Analysis of Banking Systems in Distress," IMF Working Papers 00/156, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Detragiache, Enrica & Rajan, Raghuram G, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 5088, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Nanno Mulder & Anne-Laure Baldi, 2004. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Real Exchange Rates: ABC and Mexico in the 1990s," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 45, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thierry Tressel & Thierry Verdier, 2007. "Financial Globalization and the Governance of Domestic Financial Intermediaries," IMF Working Papers 07/47, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Julia Darby & Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2004. "Fiscal Federalism, Fiscal Consolidations and Cuts in Central Government Grants: Evidence from an Event Study," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending booms in the new EU Member States - will euro adoption matter?," Working Paper Series 543, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. Henry Kim & Soyoung Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2005. "International Capital Flows and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Asia Pacific Region," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0506, Department of Economics, Tufts University. [Downloadable!]
  7. Guido Lorenzoni, 2007. "Inefficient Credit Booms," NBER Working Papers 13639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Yannick Kalantzis, 2005. "Financial fragility in emerging market countries: firm balance sheets and the productive structure," PSE Working Papers 2005-17, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  9. Daniel Ottens & Edwin Lambregts & Steven Poelhekke, 2005. "Credit Booms in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crises?," DNB Working Papers 046, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  10. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, . "How do Sub-Central Government react to cuts in grants received from Central Governments Evidence from a Panel of 15 OECD Countries," Working Papers 2005_18, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
  11. Winfried Koeniger & Matthieu Bussiere & Marcel Fratzscher, 2004. "Currency Mismatch, Uncertainty and Debt Structure," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 181, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  12. Matthieu Bussière & Marcel Fratzscher & Winfried Koeniger, 2004. "Currency mismatch, uncertainty and debt maturity structure," Working Paper Series 409, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Julia Darby & V. Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, . "Fiscal Federalism and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from an Event Study," Working Papers 2005_21, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Jun 2005. [Downloadable!]
  14. Julia Darby & Anton Muscatelli & Graeme Roy, 2006. "Asymmetries in the Responses of Sub-Central Governments to Changes in Grants: Evidence From an Event Study," ERSA conference papers ersa06p508, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  15. Espanol, Paula, 2006. "Why exporters can be financially constrained in a recently liberalised economy? A puzzle based on Argentinean firms during the 1990s," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 7, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
  17. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2004. "Financial Development and the Instability of Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 10246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Jaime Guajardo, 2008. "Financial Frictions and Business Cycles in Middle-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/20, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes book chapters.

This page was last updated on 2008-7-24.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.