Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress
AbstractThis paper studies banking distress in MENA countries and considers the extent to which mergers are used as a solution for resolving individual banking distress. We use a two-level nested logit model to model the interdependence between merger decisions and the distressed state of banks. Both bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables are deployed to predict banking distress. In line with other recent papers, we challenge the view that specific bank indicators such as CAMEL category and bank size are more significant determinants of banking distress than macroeconomic variables. A comparison of model fits and out-of-sample forecasts indicates that the unordered NL model statistically outperforms a standard logit model by substantial margins. Our empirical study shows that 67% of the distressed banks in our sample are involved in merger transactions and that weak financial status systematically increases the likelihood of a bank being involved in a merger. Distressed state-owned banks are less likely to be a target of a merger transaction. However, global economic conditions do not significantly affect the decision of distressed banks to initiate a merger policy.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.
Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411
Nested logit Banking distress Bank mergers CAMEL rating Financial stability;
Other versions of this item:
- Sahut, Jean-Michel & Mili, Mehdi, 2011. "Banking distress in MENA countries and the role of mergers as a strategic policy to resolve distress," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 138-146.
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
- G35 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Payout Policy
- G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bongini, Paola & Claessens, Stijn & Ferri, Giovanni, 2000.
"The political economy of distress in East Asian financial institutions,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2265, The World Bank.
- Paola Bongini & Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Ferri, 2001. "The Political Economy of Distress in East Asian Financial Institutions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25, February.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005.
"Understanding Changes In International Business Cycle Dynamics,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 3(5), pages 968-1006, 09.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Understanding Changes in International Business Cycle Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 9859, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hadlock, Charles & Houston, Joel & Ryngaert, Michael, 1999. "The role of managerial incentives in bank acquisitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2-4), pages 221-249, February.
- Meyer, Paul A & Pifer, Howard W, 1970. "Prediction of Bank Failures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(4), pages 853-68, September.
- Bliss, Richard T. & Rosen, Richard J., 2001. "CEO compensation and bank mergers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 107-138, July.
- Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 21-31.
- Molina, Carlos A., 2002. "Predicting bank failures using a hazard model: the Venezuelan banking crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 31-50, March.
- Allen N. Berger & David B. Humphrey, 1992. "Megamergers in banking and the use of cost efficiency as an antitrust defense," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 203, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993.
"Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure,"
Financial Industry Studies Working Paper
93-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cole, Rebel A. & Gunther, Jeffery W., 1995. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 1073-1089, September.
- Rebel A. Cole & Jeffery W. Gunther, 1993. "Separating the likelihood and timing of bank failure," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Cordella, Tito & Levy Yeyati, Eduardo, 1998.
"Public Disclosure and Bank Failures,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1886, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Wheelock, David C & Wilson, Paul W, 1995.
"Explaining Bank Failures: Deposit Insurance, Regulation, and Efficiency,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 77(4), pages 689-700, November.
- David C. Wheelock & Paul W. Wilson, 1993. "Explaining bank failures: deposit insurance, regulation, and efficiency," Working Papers 1993-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Gary Gorton, 1986.
"Banking panics and business cycles,"
86-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Kolari, James & Glennon, Dennis & Shin, Hwan & Caputo, Michele, 2002. "Predicting large US commercial bank failures," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 361-387.
- Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1975. "A Multivariate Statistical Analysis of the Characteristics of Problem Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(1), pages 21-36, March.
- Arena, Marco, 2008.
"Bank failures and bank fundamentals: A comparative analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the nineties using bank-level data,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 299-310, February.
- Marco Arena, 2005. "Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during the Nineties using Bank-Level Data," Working Papers 05-19, Bank of Canada.
- Stavros Peristiani, 1993. "The effect of mergers on bank performance," Research Paper 9313, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
- Altman, Edward I., 1977. "Predicting performance in the savings and loan association industry," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 443-466, October.
- Martin, Daniel, 1977. "Early warning of bank failure : A logit regression approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-276, November.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.