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Vulnerabilities in Central and Eastern Europe : Credit Growth

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  • Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

Abstract

In this work, we try to analyze the recent credit development in 11 Central and Eastern European countries and estimate the credit-to-GDP ratio equilibrium level using filtering methods and dynamic panel estimations. Our estimation findings corroborate previous fears about the rapid credit growth in the CEECs. Indeed, in many cases the credit expansion exceeds the level justified by their fundamentals or financial development. Under normal conditions, this rapid growth and even ''overshooting'' of banking credit could be considered as an adjustment to its long-term equilibrium level. However, in the actual crisis situation, this excessive credit growth can reinforce other existing disequilibria and lead to an increase in the financial vulnerability of these countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number halshs-00384566.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00384566

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Related research

Keywords: Bank Credit Growth; Dynamic Panel; CEECs;

References

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  1. Coudert, V. & Pouvelle, C., 2008. "La croissance des crédits dans les pays d’Europe centrale et orientale est-elle excessive ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 172, pages 39-67.
  2. Peter Backé & Balázs Égert, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: New (Over)Shooting Stars?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 112-139.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA, LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
  4. Gergely Kiss & Márton Nagy & Balázs Vonnák, 2006. "Credit Growth in Central and Eastern Europe: Convergence or Boom?," MNB Working Papers 2006/10, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2005. "Lending Booms in Europe’s Periphery: South-Western Lessons for Central-Eastern Members," Macroeconomics 0502002, EconWPA.
  6. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen, 2002. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Before and After Financial Crises," MPRA Paper 7410, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "The Real Effect of Financial Crises in the European Transition Economies," Working Papers 0920, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  2. Olga Arratibel & Davide Furceri & Reiner Martin & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2009. "The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries," Working Papers 0934, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique (GATE), Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 2, Ecole Normale Supérieure.
  3. Srdjan Marinkovic & Marko Malovic, 2012. "Serbian Credit Market After the Turmoil," Book Chapters, Institute of Economic Sciences.
  4. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu, 2010. "Forecasting Credit Growth Rate In Romania: From Credit Boom To Credit Crunch?," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 5(1), pages 62-75, March.

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