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Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality

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  • Bouvatier, Vincent
  • López-Villavicencio, Antonia
  • Mignon, Valérie

Abstract

This paper explores whether the procyclicality of private credit changes during the business cycle. To this end, we rely on the estimation of smooth transition regression models for a sample of 17 OECD countries over the 1986–2010 period. Our findings show that credit procyclicality is nonlinear, depending on economic conditions. More specifically, credit is highly procyclical in extreme – booms and busts – regimes in Canada, the UK and the US, while procyclicality is less pronounced in one or both extreme regimes in Australia, Belgium, France, Finland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Spain. Our results also emphasize the importance of financial factors in explaining the short-run behavior of private credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:37:y:2014:i:c:p:127-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.10.027
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit cycle; Business cycle; Nonlinearity; Smooth transition regression models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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