Financial Cycles and Bankruptcies in the Nordic Countries
AbstractThis paper studies the relationship between macroeconomic imbalances and bankruptcies in the Nordic countries. Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark liberalised their financial markets during the 1980s and experienced the consecutive emergence of a financial cycle, followed by severe banking crises. Cointegration analysis and Granger causality tests suggest that the joint path of credit, house prices and possibly investment in construction relative to GDP creates macroeconomic imbalances and has high predictive power for bankruptcies. House prices appear to be most important. Several empirical results appear to be similar for Sweden, Finland and Norway, while patterns for Denmark often differ. The estimations indicate that macroeconomic imbalances were small at the end of 2001 in all four countries.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 149.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 01 Aug 2003
Date of revision:
Macroeconomic imbalances; financial distress; VAR model; cointegration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-08-17 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2003-08-17 (European Economics)
- NEP-ENT-2003-08-17 (Entrepreneurship)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999.
"The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
- Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1998.
"The Nordic Banking Crisis,"
IMF Occasional Papers
161, International Monetary Fund.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Guttentag, Jack & Herring, Richard, 1984. " Credit Rationing and Financial Disorder," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(5), pages 1359-82, December.
- Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2001.
"Is the Stock Market Overvalued?,"
NBER Working Papers
8077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:fth:bfdipa:6/2001 is not listed on IDEAS
- Pesola, Jarmo, 2001. "The role of macroeconomic shocks in banking crises," Research Discussion Papers 6/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Bergman, U. Michael & Hansen, Jan, 2002. "Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: The Swedish Evidence," Working Paper Series 137, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
- Herring, Richard J, 1999. "Credit Risk and Financial Instability," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 63-79, Autumn.
- Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Bubbles, Crises, and Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 9-18, Autumn.
- Davis, E. Philip, 1995. "Debt, Financial Fragility, and Systemic Risk," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198233312.
- Goetz von Peter, 2004. "Asset Prices and Banking Distress: A Macroeconomic Approach," Finance 0411034, EconWPA.
- Caterina Mendicino, 2005.
"Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2005
120, Society for Computational Economics.
- Caterina Mendicino, 2005. "Credit Market Development, Asset Prices and Business Cycle," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 74, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
- Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality of Financial and Real Sector in Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349.
- Goetz von Peter, 2004.
"Asset prices and banking distress: a macroeconomic approach,"
BIS Working Papers
167, Bank for International Settlements.
- von Peter, Goetz, 2009. "Asset prices and banking distress: A macroeconomic approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 298-319, September.
- Pesola , Jarmo, 2005. "Banking fragility and distress: An econometric study of macroeconomic determinants," Research Discussion Papers 13/2005, Bank of Finland.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lena Löfgren).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.