Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Deflation, Credit and Asset Prices

Contents:

Author Info

  • Charles Goodhart

    (London School of Economics)

  • Boris Hofmann

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

The experience of historical episodes of financial crises in the late 19th and early 20th century, and also more recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in credit markets suggest that the build up of financial imbalances is reflected in asset prices, especially property prices, rather than in consumer prices. Based on a simple VAR impulse response analysis for a sample of twelve countries we assess the nature of the close empirical correlation between bank lending and asset prices. The results suggest that innovations to property prices have a significant effect on bank lending in the large majority of countries. For most countries we do not find evidence of a significant effect of credit on property prices or of significant dynamic interaction between share prices and credit in either direction. Interest rate innovations are found to have a significantly negative effect on asset prices in some countries, while bank lending is in general found to be rather unresponsive to interest rate movements. This finding suggests that the usefulness of interest rate policy as an instrument to smooth boom-bust cycles in asset and credit markets is questionable.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/273/ub_full_0_2_12_wp200313_text.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 132003.

as in new window
Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132003

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 55th Floor , Two International Finance Centre , 8 Finance Street , Central, Hong Kong
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Email:
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Takeo Hoshi & Anil Kashyap, 2000. "The Japanese Banking Crisis: Where Did It Come From and How Will It End?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1999, Volume 14, pages 129-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Burkhard Drees & Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1995. "The Nordic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 95/61, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Hutchison, M. & McDill, K., 1998. "Are All Banking Crises Alike? The Japanese Experience in International Comparison," Papers 99-02, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  4. A. Senhadji Semlali & Charles Collyns, 2002. "Lending Booms, Real Estate Bubbles and the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 02/20, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Boris Hofmann, 2001. "The determinants of private sector credit in industrialised countries: do property prices matter?," BIS Working Papers 108, Bank for International Settlements.
  6. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. King, Mervyn, 1994. "Debt deflation: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 419-445, April.
  8. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier.
  11. Gerlach, Stefan & Peng, Wensheng, 2004. "Bank Lending and Property Prices in Hong Kong," CEPR Discussion Papers 4797, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Muellbauer, John, 1994. "The Assessment: Consumer Expenditure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 1-41, Summer.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wensheng Peng & Dickson C. Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "The Property Market and the Macroeconomy of the Mainland: A Cross Region Study," Working Papers 052007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather, 2013. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?," Working Paper Series 1541, European Central Bank.
  3. Kontonikas, Alexandros & Ioannidis, Christos, 2005. "Should monetary policy respond to asset price misalignments?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
  4. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:132003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.