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Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?

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  • Brissimis, Sophocles N.
  • Garganas, Eugenie N.
  • Hall, Stephen G.

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyse the factors which determined consumer credit in Greece in the period before and after the financial liberalisation, while accounting for significant changes in structure due to the lifting of credit restrictions and the subsequent impressive boom of consumer loans. We use multivariate cointegration techniques to estimate a vector error correction model (VECM) and identify separate demand and supply relationships for consumer loans. We introduce demand and supply-related shifts in parameters through the inclusion of appropriate dummy variables and trends in the long-run relationships. We partly deviate from the typical Johansen procedure and estimate the model in two steps. We find that the theoretical exclusion and coefficient-size restrictions on the demand and supply cointegrating vectors are valid. Our results are consistent with the operation of a bank lending channel in Greece. We also find that the supply side was mostly responsible for the acceleration of consumer loan growth following credit liberalisation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41819.

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Date of creation: 10 Oct 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41819

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Keywords: Consumer credit; Financial liberalisation; Cointegration; Structural breaks;

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  1. Cottarelli, Carlo & Dell'Ariccia, Giovanni & Vladkova-Hollar, Ivanna, 2005. "Early birds, late risers, and sleeping beauties: Bank credit growth to the private sector in Central and Eastern Europe and in the Balkans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 83-104, January.
  2. Rubaszek, Michał & Serwa, Dobromil, 2012. "Determinants of credit to households in a life-cycle model," Working Paper Series 1420, European Central Bank.
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Sophocles N. Brissimis & George Hondroyiannis & P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 2003. "Empirical Modelling of Money Demand in Periods of Structural Change: The Case of Greece," Working Papers 01, Bank of Greece.
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Cited by:
  1. Sarantis Lolos & Evangelia Papapetrou, 2011. "Housing credit and female labour supply: assessing the evidence from Greece," Working Papers 141, Bank of Greece.

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