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The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth

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  • de Bondt, Gabe
  • Maddaloni, Angela
  • Peydró, José-Luis
  • Scopel, Silvia

Abstract

This study examines empirically the information content of the euro area Bank Lending Survey for aggregate credit and output growth. The responses of the lending survey, especially those related to loans to enterprises, are a significant leading indicator for euro area bank credit and real GDP growth. Notwithstanding the short history of the survey, the findings are robust across various specifications, including “horse races” with other well-known leading financial indicators. Our results are supportive of the existence of a bank lending, balance sheet, and risk-taking channel of monetary policy. They also suggest that price as well as non-price conditions and terms of credit standards do matter for credit and business cycles. Finally, we discuss the implications for the 2007/2009 financial and economic crisis. JEL Classification: C23, E32, E51, E52, G21, G28

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1160.

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Date of creation: Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101160

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Keywords: bank lending survey; business cycle; credit cycle; euro area; Monetary policy transmission;

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References

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  1. Gabe de Bondt, 2004. "The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: first empirical evidence for the euro area corporate bond market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 219-228.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kaya, Orcun & Wang, Lulu, 2014. "The role of bank lending tightening on corporate bond issuance in the eurozone," CFS Working Paper Series 456, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  2. Sophocles N. Brissimis & Eugenie N. Garganas & Stephen G. Hall, 2014. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalization: an overreaction to repressed demand?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 139-152, January.
  3. William F. Bassett & Mary Beth Chosak & John C. Driscoll & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Wäckerle, Manuel, 2013. "On the bottom-up foundations of the banking-macro nexus," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7(40), pages 1-45.
  5. Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2010. "Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S. lending standards," Working Paper Series 1248, European Central Bank.
  6. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Costa, Stefano & Malgarini, Marco & Margani, Patrizia, 2012. "Access to credit for Italian firms: new evidence from the ISTAT confidence business surveys," MPRA Paper 41389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Peydró, José-Luis & Maddaloni, Angela, 2010. "Trusting the bankers: a new look at the credit channel of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1228, European Central Bank.
  9. Nir Klein, 2014. "Small and Medium Size Enterprises, Credit Supply Shocks, and Economic Recovery in Europe," IMF Working Papers 14/98, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Gilchrist, S. & Mojon, B., 2014. "Credit Risk in the Euro area," Working papers 482, Banque de France.
  11. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61–80.

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