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Output and Inflation Responses to Credit Shocks: Are There Threshold Effects in the Euro Area?

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  • Calza Alessandro

    ()
    (European Central Bank)

  • Sousa João

    ()
    (Banco de Portugal)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the U.S. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy. Consistent with this finding, the impulse responses show some signs of asymmetric responses over the lending cycle. However, the results of the paper suggest that in the euro area non-linearities arising from credit market imperfections may be less pronounced than in the U.S., probably reflecting specific institutional features of its banking sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 1-21

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:10:y:2006:i:2:n:3

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  1. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
  2. J. B. Chatelain & Andrea Generale & I. Hernando & U. von Kalckreuth & P. Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm investment and monetary transmission in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 431, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0119, Banco de Espa�a.
  4. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
  5. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
  6. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-52, June.
  7. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-36, June.
  8. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
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