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Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?

Author

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  • Calza, Alessandro
  • Sousa, João

Abstract

This paper investigates whether output and inflation respond asymmetrically to credit shocks in the euro area. The methodology, based on a non-linear VAR system, follows work by Balke (2000) for the US. The results reveal evidence of threshold effects related to credit conditions in the economy. Consistent with this finding, the impulse responses show some signs of asymmetric responses over the lending cycle. JEL Classification: E51, C15, C32

Suggested Citation

  • Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2005481
    Note: 338639
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jean-Bernard Chatelain & Andrea Generale & Ignacio Hernando & Ulf von Kalckreuth & Philip Vermeulen, 2001. "Firm Investment and Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Working Papers 0119, Banco de España.
    2. Blinder, Alan S, 1987. "Credit Rationing and Effective Supply Failures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(386), pages 327-352, June.
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    5. Azariadis, Costas & Smith, Bruce, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Regime Switching in Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 516-536, June.
    6. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
    7. Ignazio Angeloni & Anil K. Kashyap & Benoit Mojon & Daniele Terlizzese, 2003. "The Output Composition Puzzle: A Difference in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Euro Area and U.S," NBER Working Papers 9985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João & Manrique, Marta, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 202, European Central Bank.
    9. Gabe J. de Bondt, 2000. "Financial Structure and Monetary Transmission in Europe," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2015.
    10. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    11. Ehrmann, Michael & Backé, Peter, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    2. Jorge Andrés Tamayo Castaño, 2012. "Asimetrías en la demanda por trabajo en Colombia: el papel del ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 9286, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Serwa, Dobromil, 2010. "Larger crises cost more: Impact of banking sector instability on output growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1463-1481, December.
    4. Stefan Avdjiev & Zheng Zeng, 2014. "Credit growth, monetary policy and economic activity in a three-regime TVAR model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2936-2951, August.
    5. Dobromił Serwa, 2012. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(8), pages 1025-1040, March.
    6. Saten Kumar, 2016. "Is the US Consumer Credit Asymmetric?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 194-215, May.
    7. Giovanni Callegari & Mr. Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 2012/190, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Jorge Andrés Tamayo Castaño, 2012. "Asimetrías en la demanda por trabajo en Colombia: el papel del ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 689, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Alessio Anzuini & Francesca Brusa, 2016. "Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1046, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    11. Rozina Shaheen, 2020. "Credit market conditions and impact of monetary policy in a developing economy context," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 409-425, May.
    12. Donato Masciandaro & Riccardo Russo, 2022. "Central Banks and Climate Policy: Unpleasant Trade–Offs? A Principal–Agent Approach," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22181, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Ine Van Robays, 2012. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and the Impact of Oil Shocks," CESifo Working Paper Series 3937, CESifo.
    14. Shijaku, Gerti, 2014. "Fiscal policy, output and financial stress in the case of developing and emerging European economies: a threshold VAR approach," MPRA Paper 79139, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mr. Magnus Saxegaard, 2006. "Excess Liquidity and Effectiveness of Monetary Policy: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2006/115, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    asymmetric shocks; credit; euro area; non-linearities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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