IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbb/reswpp/200810-17.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area

Author

Listed:
  • Christiane Baumeister

    (Ghent University)

  • Eveline Durinck

    (Ghent University)

  • Gert Peersman

    (Ghent University)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate how the dynamic effects of excess liquidity shocks on economic activity, asset prices and inflation differ over time. We show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the economy (asset price boom-bust, business cycle, inflation cycle, credit cycle and monetary policy stance).

Suggested Citation

  • Christiane Baumeister & Eveline Durinck & Gert Peersman, 2008. "Liquidity, inflation and asset prices in a time-varying framework for the euro area," Working Paper Research 142, National Bank of Belgium.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-17
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp142en.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
    2. Gunther Schnabl & Andreas Hoffmann, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets: An Overinvestment View," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(9), pages 1226-1252, September.
    3. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    4. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "Mortgage markets, collateral constraints, and monetary policy: Do institutional factors matter?," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    5. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin & Gerlach, Stefan, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: Financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IMFS Working Paper Series 16, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    7. Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The future of monetary aggregates in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1029-1059, July.
    8. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    9. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    10. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "Are the effects of monetary policy in the euro area greater in recessions than in booms?," Working Paper Series 52, European Central Bank.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    12. Rüffer, Rasmus & Stracca, Livio, 2006. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Working Paper Series 696, European Central Bank.
    13. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    14. Gert Peersman & Frank Smets, 2005. "The Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 319-342, April.
    15. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
    16. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "The Channels of Monetary Transmission: Lessons for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity, monetary policy, and financial cycles," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 14(Jan).
    19. Mahadeva,Lavan & Sinclair,Peter (ed.), 2002. "Monetary Transmission in Diverse Economies," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521813464, October.
    20. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    21. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    22. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and financial cycles," BIS Working Papers 256, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Paul De Grauwe & Magdalena Polan, 2005. "Is Inflation Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 239-259, June.
    24. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    25. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 42, European Central Bank.
    26. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    27. Stefan Gerlach, 2004. "The two pillars of the European Central Bank [‘The demand for M3 in the euro area’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 19(40), pages 390-439.
    28. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Money at Low Frequencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 534-542, 04-05.
    29. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
    30. Angeloni,Ignazio & Kashyap,Anil K. & Mojon,Benoît (ed.), 2003. "Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521828642, October.
    31. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-417, October.
    32. Hofmann, Boris, 2006. "Do monetary indicators (still) predict euro area inflation?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    33. C. Baumeister & G. Peersman & -, 2010. "Sources of the Volatility Puzzle in the Crude Oil Market," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/634, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    34. Gert Peersman, 2004. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area: Are the Effects Different Across Countries?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(3), pages 285-308, July.
    35. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 481, European Central Bank.
    36. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    37. Stefan Gerlach, 2007. "Interest Rate Setting by the ECB, 1999-2006: Words and Deeds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(3), pages 1-46, September.
    38. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 2000. "Bubbles and Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 236-255, January.
    39. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
    40. Katrin Assenmacher & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Financial Structure and the Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," Working Papers 2008-16, Swiss National Bank.
    41. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    42. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
    43. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
    44. Lemke, Wolfgang & Greiber, Claus, 2005. "Money demand and macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,26, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    45. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 91, European Central Bank.
    46. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 746, European Central Bank.
    47. Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
    48. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    49. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Emil Stavrev, 2008. "The ECB’s Monetary Analysis Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2008/171, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    3. Gertler, Pavel & Hofmann, Boris, 2018. "Monetary facts revisited," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 154-170.
    4. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2011. "Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1, pages 43-52.
    5. Berger, Helge & Harjes, Thomas & Stavrev, Emil, 2008. "The ECB's monetary analysis revisited," Discussion Papers 2008/14, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    6. Ellington, Michael & Florackis, Chris & Milas, Costas, 2017. "Liquidity shocks and real GDP growth: Evidence from a Bayesian time-varying parameter VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 93-117.
    7. Jean-Claude Trichet, 2009. "Credible alertness revisited," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 437-460.
    8. De Santis, Roberto A. & Favero, Carlo A. & Roffia, Barbara, 2013. "Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: A contribution to assessing risks to price stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 377-404.
    9. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07041 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Franz Seitz & Markus A. Schmidt, 2014. "Money In Modern Macro Models: A Review of the Arguments," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 156-174.
    11. Detken, Carsten & Adalid, Ramón, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank.
    12. Axel A Weber & Rafael Gerke & Andreas Worms, 2009. "Has the monetary transmission process in the euro area changed? Evidence vased on VAR estimates," BIS Working Papers 276, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    14. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    15. Christian Dreger & Jürgen Wolters, 2009. "Geldpolitik und Vermögensmärkte," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 78(1), pages 56-65.
    16. Setzer, Ralph & van den Noord, Paul & Wolff, Guntram B., 2011. "Heterogeneity in money holdings across euro area countries: The role of housing," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 764-780.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj861rvos9ns14n0h0 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy and money demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 40-54.
    19. Silvestrini, Andrea & Zaghini, Andrea, 2015. "Financial shocks and the real economy in a nonlinear world: From theory to estimation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 915-929.
    20. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    21. Dreger, Christian & Wolters, Jürgen, 2009. "Money Velocity and Asset Prices in the Euro Area," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 51-63.
    22. Chen, Zhengyang & Valcarcel, Victor J., 2021. "Monetary transmission in money markets: The not-so-elusive missing piece of the puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Liquidity; asset prices; inflation; time-varying coefficients;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200810-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bnbgvbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.