Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Larger crises cost more: impact of banking sector instability on output growth

Contents:

Author Info

  • Serwa, Dobromił

Abstract

We propose a method for calculating the macroeconomic costs of banking crises that controls for the downward impact of recessions on banking activity. In contrast to earlier research, we estimate the cost of crises based on the size of banking crises. The extent of a crisis is measured using banking sector aggregates. The results, based on our method and data from over 100 banking crises, suggest that the size of a crisis matters for economic growth. Lower credit, deposit and money growth during crises cause GDP growth to decline.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5101/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7804/
File Function: revised version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5101.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5101

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: banking crises; costs; output growth; event-study;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica & Gupta, Poonam, 2006. "Inside the crisis: An empirical analysis of banking systems in distress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 702-718, August.
  3. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Raghuram Rajan & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "The Real Effect of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 05/63, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-57, March.
  5. Michael Hutchison & Ilan Noy, 2002. "How bad are twins? output costs of currency and banking crises," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2002-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth," NBER Working Papers 11076, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  9. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Simon G. Gilchrist & Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1994. "The financial accelerator and the flight to quality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Norman Loayza & Romain Ranciere, 2002. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 684, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Nathan S. Balke, 2000. "Credit and Economic Activity: Credit Regimes and Nonlinear Propagation of Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 344-349, May.
  13. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May.
  14. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Ravn, Morten O. & Sola, Martin, 2003. "Markov Switching Causality and the Money-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 3803, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Klingebiel, Daniela & Kroszner, Randall S & Laeven, Luc, 2006. "Banking Crises, Financial Dependence and Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5623, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1996. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 11-30, January.
  17. Atanasova Christina, 2003. "Credit Market Imperfections and Business Cycle Dynamics: A Nonlinear Approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, December.
  18. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Economic Growth in East Asia Before and After the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 8330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Gupta, Poonam, 2005. "Aftermath of banking crises: Effects on real and monetary variables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 675-691, June.
  20. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  21. Aaron Tornell, 2005. "Systemic Crises and Growth (September 2006)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 359, UCLA Department of Economics.
  22. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
  23. Honohan, Patrick & Klingebiel, Daniela, 2000. "Controlling the fiscal costs of banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2441, The World Bank.
  24. Calza, Alessandro & Sousa, João, 2005. "Output and inflation responses to credit shocks: are there threshold effects in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0481, European Central Bank.
  25. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  26. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990," IMF Working Papers 02/155, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman & Beck, Thorsten, 1999. "Financial intermediation and growth : Causality and causes," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2059, The World Bank.
  28. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Glenn Hoggarth & Ricardo Reis & Victoria Saporta, 2001. "Costs of banking system instability: some empirical evidence," Bank of England working papers 144, Bank of England.
  30. J. Brooke Willis, 1960. "Gross Flows Of Funds Through Mutual Savings Banks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 15(2), pages 170-190, 05.
  31. Edward J. Frydl, 1999. "The Length and Cost of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 99/30, International Monetary Fund.
  32. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  33. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
  34. Poonam Gupta, 2000. "Aftermath of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/96, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Love, Inessa & Preve, Lorenzo A. & Sarria-Allende, Virginia, 2007. "Trade credit and bank credit: Evidence from recent financial crises," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 453-469, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Fernández, Ana I. & González, Francisco & Suárez, Nuria, 2013. "How do bank competition, regulation, and institutions shape the real effect of banking crises? International evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 19-40.
  2. Puspa Amri & Apanard P. Angkinand & Clas Wihlborg, 2011. "International comparisons of bank regulation, liberalization, and banking crises," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 322-339, November.
  3. Lagoarde-Segot, Thomas & Leoni, Patrick L., 2013. "Pandemics of the poor and banking stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4574-4583.
  4. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2013. "Decizii strategice ale politicii monetare
    [Strategic decisions of the Monetary Policy]
    ," MPRA Paper 51242, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Nov 2013.
  5. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2013. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 41-58.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.