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Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output

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  • Dobromił Serwa

Abstract

In this article, we analyse the asymmetric causality linkages between credit growth and output growth during banking crises. We employ a recently developed procedure, based on a bivariate Markov switching model, to test the hypotheses of independence, causality and asymmetric causality between credit and output. Using a sample of 103 banking crises around the world, we find that neither credit nor output takes precedence as a variable in calm and crisis periods, although there is evidence of instantaneous interdependence between the banking and real sector during crises. The results suggest that shocks propagate mostly within a year between the banking sector and the real economy. The linear link between credit growth and output growth is also regime dependent.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2010.534064
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 44 (2012)
Issue (Month): 8 (March)
Pages: 1025-1040

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:8:p:1025-1040

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Cited by:
  1. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the history of crises in open economies," Working Paper Series 2516, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Stefano Puddu, 2013. "Real Sector and Banking System: Real and Feedback Effects. A Non-Linear VAR Approach," IRENE Working Papers 13-01, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
  3. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  4. Michal Franta, 2013. "The Effect of Non-Linearity Between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts," Working Papers 2013/09, Czech National Bank, Research Department.

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