Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model
AbstractIn this paper we introduce identifying restrictions into a Markov-switching vector autoregression model. We define a separate set of impulse responses for each Markov regime to show how fundamental disturbances affect the variables in the model dependent on the regime. We go to illustrate the use of these regime-dependent impulse response functions in a model of the U.S. economy. The regimes we identify come close to the âoldâ and ânew economyâ regimes found in recent research. We provide evidence that oil price shocks are much less contractionary and inflationary than they used to be. We show furthermore that the decoupling of the US economic performance from oil price shocks cannot be explained by âgood luckâ alone, but that structural changes within the US economy have taken place.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.
Volume (Year): 78 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (March)
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet
Other versions of this item:
- Ehrmann , Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Research Discussion Papers 11/2001, Bank of Finland.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to replicate Ehrmann-Ellison-Valla(2003) regime dependent impulse response," Statistical Software Components RTZ00177, Boston College Department of Economics.
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