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Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output

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  • Galbraith, John W

Abstract

The possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non-linearity in the relation between real money supply and output, of which a simple case is a threshold effect. In this case, consistent with the credit-rationing model of Blinder (1987), the monetary variable has a more powerful effect if it is below some threshold than when it is above. Testing for the importance of this threshold is straightforward if the appropriate threshold value is known a priori, but where the value is not known and must be chosen based on the sample, the testing problem becomes more difficult. We apply recently-developed tests applicable in this situation to both US and Canadian data, and find substantial evidence of a threshold effect, particularly in US data. However, the estimated threshold values are high. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (July-Aug.)
Pages: 419-29

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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:4:p:419-29

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Cited by:
  1. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Dobromil Serwa, 2008. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," Working Papers 30, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  3. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 1998. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Near Unit Root," Departmental Working Papers 9821, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
  4. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA.
  5. Hansen,B.E., 1999. "Testing for linearity," Working papers 7, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  6. Bazán, Walter, 2011. "No-linealidades y asimetrías en el crédito peruano," Working Papers 2011-015, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  7. Jan Jacobs & Jan Kakes, 2000. "Credit demand asymmetry in the Netherlands 1983-1997," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
  8. Galbraith, John W. & Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Testing for asymmetry in the link between the yield spread and output in the G-7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 657-672, October.
  9. Baum, Anja & Koester, Gerrit B., 2011. "The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity over the business cycle - evidence from a threshold VAR analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Dufrenot, Gilles & Mignon, Valerie & Peguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2004. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigation using MRSTAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-71, January.
  11. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Jalolov, Mirzosharif, 2005. "Money-income causality revisited in EGARCH: Spillovers of monetary policy to Asia from the US," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 299-313, April.

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