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Credit Rationing and Threshold Effects in the Relation between Money and Output

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Galbraith, John W

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Abstract

The possibility that the effect of monetary policy on output may depend on whether credit conditions are tight or loose can be expressed as a non-linearity in the relation between real money supply and output, of which a simple case is a threshold effect. In this case, consistent with the credit-rationing model of Blinder (1987), the monetary variable has a more powerful effect if it is below some threshold than when it is above. Testing for the importance of this threshold is straightforward if the appropriate threshold value is known a priori, but where the value is not known and must be chosen based on the sample, the testing problem becomes more difficult. We apply recently-developed tests applicable in this situation to both US and Canadian data, and find substantial evidence of a threshold effect, particularly in US data. However, the estimated threshold values are high. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Applied Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 11 (1996)
Issue (Month): 4 (July-Aug.)
Pages: 419-29
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Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:4:p:419-29

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  2. repec:bep:sndecm:11:2007:3:1322-1322 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Gilles DUFRENOT & Val=E9rie MIGNON & Anne PEGUIN-FEISSOLE, 2003. "Business cycles asymmetry and monetary policy: a further investigatio= n=20 using MRSTAR models," Macroeconomics 0309002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:att:wimass:1919997 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Jan Jacobs & Jan Kakes, 2000. "Credit demand asymmetry in the Netherlands 1983-1997," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-11, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Serwa, Dobromił, 2007. "Banking crises and nonlinear linkages between credit and output," MPRA Paper 5946, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bruce E. Hansen & Mehmet Caner, 1997. "Threshold Autoregressions with a Unit Root," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 381, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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