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The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?

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  • Thomas J. Cunningham

Abstract

The answer to this question is yes, but not that much about banks. Every quarter the Federal Reserve System surveys a panel of senior loan officers at major banks across the nation. The results of this survey have been found in previous studies to provide useful information in predicting gross domestic product. This paper extends that work, finding that sector-specific survey results are relevant for predicting real activity in those sectors but, strangely, that the informative power of the survey results only marginally extend to various measures of performance in the banking sector.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2006-24.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-24

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  1. Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
  2. Jeong, Woocheon & Kymn, Kem O. & Kymn, Christine J., 2003. "The long-run interdependence of bank-health, investment-oriented bank loans, and economic performance: A time-series analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 11-30.
  3. Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren & Geoffrey M. B. Tootell, 1999. "Does the Federal Reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Working Papers 99-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  4. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
  5. Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Mar, pages 29-34.
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Cited by:
  1. P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
  2. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61–80.
  3. Paolo Del Giovane & Andrea Nobili & Federico Maria Signoretti, 2013. "Supply tightening or lack of demand? An analysis of credit developments during the Lehman Brothers and the sovereign debt crises," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 942, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.

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