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The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?

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Thomas J. Cunningham

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Abstract

The answer to this question is yes, but not that much about banks. Every quarter the Federal Reserve System surveys a panel of senior loan officers at major banks across the nation. The results of this survey have been found in previous studies to provide useful information in predicting gross domestic product. This paper extends that work, finding that sector-specific survey results are relevant for predicting real activity in those sectors but, strangely, that the informative power of the survey results only marginally extend to various measures of performance in the banking sector.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2006-24.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-24

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  1. Jeong, Woocheon & Kymn, Kem O. & Kymn, Christine J., 2003. "The long-run interdependence of bank-health, investment-oriented bank loans, and economic performance: A time-series analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 11-30. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jan. [Downloadable!]
  3. Stacey L. Schreft & Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Working Paper 91-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1991:i:mar/apr:p:29-34:n:v.77no.2 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16. [Downloadable!]
  6. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2003. "Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 817-839, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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