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The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?

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  • Thomas J. Cunningham

Abstract

The answer to this question is yes, but not that much about banks. Every quarter the Federal Reserve System surveys a panel of senior loan officers at major banks across the nation. The results of this survey have been found in previous studies to provide useful information in predicting gross domestic product. This paper extends that work, finding that sector-specific survey results are relevant for predicting real activity in those sectors but, strangely, that the informative power of the survey results only marginally extend to various measures of performance in the banking sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-24
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    File URL: https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/research/publications/wp/2006/wp0624.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeong, Woocheon & Kymn, Kem O. & Kymn, Christine J., 2003. "The long-run interdependence of bank-health, investment-oriented bank loans, and economic performance: A time-series analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 11-30.
    2. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
    3. Raymond E. Owens & Stacey L. Schreft, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Mar), pages 29-34.
    4. Peek, Joe & Rosengren, Eric S. & Tootell, Geoffrey M. B., 2003. "Does the federal reserve possess an exploitable informational advantage?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 817-839, May.
    5. Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2021. "Forecasting real‐time economic activity using house prices and credit conditions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 213-227, March.
    2. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
    3. P. Siklos, B. Lavender, 2014. "The Credit Cycle And The Business Cycle In Canada And The U.S.: Two Solitudes," LCERPA Working Papers wm0065, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    4. Seitz, Franz & Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno, 2015. "The information content of money and credit for US activity," Working Paper Series 1803, European Central Bank.
    5. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Vojtech, Cindy M. & Kay, Benjamin S. & Driscoll, John C., 2020. "The real consequences of bank mortgage lending standards," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    7. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    8. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2018. "Efecto de las condiciones financieras sobre el desempeño del sector Construcción [Effect of financial conditions on the performance of the Construction sector]," MPRA Paper 118261, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrea Nobili & Andrea Orame, 2015. "Estimating the effects of a credit supply restriction: is there a bias in the Bank Lending Survey?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 266, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Albuquerque, Bruno & Baumann, Ursel & Seitz, Franz, 2016. "What does money and credit tell us about real activity in the United States?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 328-347.
    11. Paolo Del Giovane & Andrea Nobili & Federico M. Signoretti, 2017. "Assessing the Sources of Credit Supply Tightening: Was the Sovereign Debt Crisis Different from Lehman?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 197-234, June.
    12. G.Levieuge, 2015. "the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey’s indicators (in French)," Working papers 567, Banque de France.
    13. Bell, Venetia & Pugh, Alice, 2014. "The Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey," Bank of England working papers 515, Bank of England.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Elena Deryugina & Olga Kovalenko & Irina Pantina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2015. "Disentangling loan demand and supply shocks in Russia," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps3, Bank of Russia.
    16. Khosravi, Taha, 2015. "The Impact of a Low Interest Rate Environment: Empirical Evidence from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey," MPRA Paper 67363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201503111111 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    19. Wei‐Shao Wu & Sandy Suardi, 2021. "Economic Uncertainty and Bank Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 2037-2069, December.
    20. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. N. Kundan Kishor & Evan F. Koenig, 2014. "Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real‐Time VAR Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 545-564, March.
    22. repec:ecb:ecbwps:20141803 is not listed on IDEAS

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