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Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy

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  • Del Giovane, Paolo
  • Eramo, Ginette
  • Nobili, Andrea

Abstract

This paper combines qualitative information from the Eurosystem Bank Lending Survey with micro-data on loans for the participating Italian banks to assess the role of supply and demand factors in lending to enterprises developments, with a focus on the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Both demand and supply have played a relevant role, in the whole sample period and during the crisis. A counterfactual exercise shows that the effect of supply factors on the growth of lending was strongest after the Lehman collapse. On average, over the crisis period the negative effect on the annualized quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the panel banks' lending to enterprises can be estimated in a range of 2.3-3.1 percentage points, depending on the specification. About one fourth of the total supply effect can be attributed to costs related to the banks' balance sheet position, the rest to their perception of credit risk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

Volume (Year): 35 (2011)
Issue (Month): 10 (October)
Pages: 2719-2732

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:10:p:2719-2732

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Keywords: Credit growth Supply tightening Financial crisis;

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References

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  18. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hannah Sabine Hempell & Christoffer Kok Sørensen, 2010. "The impact of supply constraints on bank lending in the euro area - crisis induced crunching?," Working Paper Series 1262, European Central Bank.
  2. Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  3. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Enrico Sette, 2012. "Bank balance sheets and the transmission of financial shocks to borrowers: evidence from the 2007-2008 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 848, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Filipe Silva & Carlos Carreira, 2012. "Measuring Firms' Financial Constraints: A Rough Guide," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 36, pages 23-46, December.
  5. Holton, Sarah & Lawless, Martina & McCann, Fergal, 2012. "Firm Credit in Europe: A Tale of Three Crises," Research Technical Papers 04/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  6. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Roberto Felici & Elisabetta Manzoli & Raffaella Pico, 2012. "Crisis and Italian households: a microeconomic analysis of mortgage contracts," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 125, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2010. "Trusting the bankers: a new look at the credit channel of monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1228, European Central Bank.
  10. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  11. Giorgio Albareto & Paolo Finaldi Russo, 2012. "Financial fragility and growth prospects: credit rationing during the crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 127, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  12. Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Angela Maddaloni & José-Luis Peydró, 2010. "Bank risk-taking, securitization, supervision and low interest rates: Evidence from the euro area and the U.S. lending standards," Working Paper Series 1248, European Central Bank.

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