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The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010

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  • Michele Caivano

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Lisa Rodano

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

  • Stefano Siviero

    ()
    (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

The world recession triggered by the financial crisis has impacted with extraordinary violence on economic activity in Italy.What has been the contribution of the various channels through which the crisis was transmitted to the Italian economy? What have been the effects stemming from the reaction of economic policies? To address these questions, our paper makes a counterfactual analysis of the Italian economy over the period 2008-2010, exploring a set of “no-crisis†scenarios. We estimate that the events prompted by the financial turmoil subtracted 6.5 percentage points from economic activity over the period 2008-2010. Specifically, crisis factors curtailed GDP growth by about 10 percentage points, while economic policies and automatic stabilizers mitigated the impact by about 3.5 percentage points. According to our results, the effects of the crisis were mostly “imported from abroadâ€; the worsening of domestic financing conditions and of the business and household climates played lesser - though not negligible - roles.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) with number 64.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_64_10

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Keywords: global financial crisis; counterfactual simulations; business fluctuations.;

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  1. Antonio Bassanetti & Martina Cecioni & Andrea Nobili & Giordano Zevi, 2011. "Le principali recessioni italiane: un confronto retrospettivo," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 3, pages 281-318, JULY-SEPT.
  2. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2001. "Macroeconomic forecasting: Debunking a few old wives' tales," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 395, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Bouthevillain, C. & Van Den Dool, G. & Langenus, G. & Mohr, M. & Momigliano, S. & Tujula, M. & De Cos, P.H. & Cour-Thimann, Philippine, 2001. "Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balances: an Alternative Approach," Papers 77, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
  4. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier?," NBER Working Papers 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. McAfee, R Preston, 1983. "American Economic Growth and the Voyage of Columbus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(4), pages 735-40, September.
  6. William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Fair, Ray C & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1972. "Methods of Estimation for Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(3), pages 497-514, May.
  9. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2004. "Market distress and vanishing liquidity: anatomy and policy options," BIS Working Papers 158, Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "Why Central Banks Should Burst Bubbles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 87-107, 05.
  11. Britta Hamburg & Sandro Momigliano & Bernhard Manzke & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The Reaction of Fiscal Policy to the Crisis in Italy and Germany: Are they really polar Cases in the European Context?," Revista de Economía y Estadística, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto de Economía y Finanzas, vol. 0(2), pages 103–133, July.
  12. Antonio Bassanetti & Michele Caivano & Alberto Locarno, 2010. "Modelling Italian potential output and the output gap," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 771, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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Cited by:
  1. Francesca Bartoli & Giovanni Ferri & Pierluigi Murro & Zeno Rotondi, 2011. "Soft information and loan supply crisis. Evidence from the credit files of a large bank," Rivista Bancaria - Minerva Bancaria, Istituto di Cultura Bancaria Francesco Parrillo, issue 5-6, november.
  2. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2011. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 102, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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