Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Supply tightening or lack of demand? An analysis of credit developments during the Lehman Brothers and the sovereign debt crises

Contents:

Author Info

  • Paolo Del Giovane

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Nobili

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

  • Federico Maria Signoretti

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We estimate a structural econometric model for the credit market in Italy, using bank-level information and the responses of Italian banks to the euro-area Bank Lending Survey to identify demand and supply, focusing on the recent financial crisis. The main results are the following. First, while in normal circumstances the functioning of the Italian credit market is consistent with a standard imperfect-competition model, during phases of high tension there are credit-rationing phenomena. Second, supply restrictions have a relevant impact on lending, both when they are due to banks’ balance-sheet constraints and when they are the effect of greater perceived borrower riskiness. Third, to a large extent the tightening during the sovereign debt crisis reflected the common shock of the widening sovereign spread, not idiosyncratic bank funding problems. Fourth, the role of supply was stronger during the sovereign than the global financial crisis, mainly due to greater banks’ funding difficulties. In a counterfactual exercise we estimate that in the second quarter of 2012 interest rates were more than 2 percentage points higher and the stock of loans more than 8 percent lower than would have been the case without the tightening of lending standards in the course of the entire crisis.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/econo/temidi/td13/td942_13/en_td942/en_tema_942.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 942.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Nov 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_942_13

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Via Nazionale, 91 - 00184 Roma
Web page: http://www.bancaditalia.it
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: credit rationing; supply tightening; financial crisis; sovereign debt crisis;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Paolo Del Giovane & Ginette Eramo & Andrea Nobili, 2010. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: a survey-based analysis for Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 764, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. Stefania De Mitri & Giorgio Gobbi & Enrico Sette, 2010. "Relationship lending in a financial turmoil," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 772, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Quandt, Richard E, 1978. "Tests of the Equilibrium vs. Disequilibrium Hypotheses," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 435-52, June.
  4. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
  5. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 2008. "Microeconomics of Banking, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262062704, December.
  6. Fabio Panetta & Federico M. Signoretti, 2010. "Credit demand and supply in Italy during the financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 63, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  7. Paolo Angelini & Andrea Nobili & Cristina Picillo, 2011. "The Interbank Market after August 2007: What Has Changed, and Why?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(5), pages 923-958, 08.
  8. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
  9. Ugo Albertazzi & Tiziano Ropele & Gabriele Sene & Federico M. Signoretti, 2012. "The impact of the sovereign debt crisis on the activity of Italian banks," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 133, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-42, September.
  11. Gabriel Jimenez & Steven Ongena & Jose-Luis Peydro & Jesus Saurina, 2012. "Credit Supply and Monetary Policy: Identifying the Bank Balance-Sheet Channel with Loan Applications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(5), pages 2301-26, August.
  12. Marcello Bofondi & Luisa Carpinelli & Enrico Sette, 2013. "Credit supply during a sovereign debt crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 909, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  13. Jaffee, Dwight M & Modigliani, Franco, 1969. "A Theory and Test of Credit Rationing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 850-72, December.
  14. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
  15. Emilia Bonaccorsi di Patti & Enrico Sette, 2012. "Bank balance sheets and the transmission of financial shocks to borrowers: evidence from the 2007-2008 crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 848, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  16. Marco Casiraghi & Eugenio Gaiotti & Lisa Rodano & Alessandro Secchi, 2013. "The impact of unconventional monetary policy on the Italian economy during the sovereign debt crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 203, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  17. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Why Don't They Lend? Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 156-184.
  20. Sylvanus Ikhide, 2003. "Was There a Credit Crunch in Namibia Between 1996-2000?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 269-290, November.
  21. Hannah Sabine Hempell, 2004. "New Bank Lending Survey of the Eurosystem: Interpretation and Use of First Results for Germany," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,CIRET, vol. 2004(3), pages 387-407.
  22. Degryse, Hans & Kim, Moshe & Ongena, Steven, 2009. "Microeconometrics of Banking Methods, Applications, and Results," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195340471, October.
  23. Nada Oulidi & Laurence Allain, 2009. "Credit Market in Morocco," IMF Working Papers 09/53, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "A Credit Crunch? a Case Study of Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis," IMF Working Papers 96/135, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters," IMF Working Papers 08/169, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_942_13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.