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Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Beer

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

  • Walter Waschiczek

    (Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Economic Analysis Division)

Abstract

This paper contributes to the emerging literature that makes use of Bank Lending Survey (BLS) data to shed light on the determinants of the growth of loans to enterprises. We examine the relationship between loan growth and information from the BLS using Bayesian model averaging. Our results suggest that in Austria volumes of corporate loans mainly react to changes in demand whereas supply effects play only a minor role. Moreover, the current crisis did not impair bank lending to enterprises beyond its influence on credit standards and loan demand. We find no indication for a credit crunch as defined by Bernanke and Lown (1991) in Austria. The evidence is less clear with regard to the broader definition of credit crunch by Owens and Schreft (1993) that also takes into account non-price conditions. In addition, this paper discusses the concept of credit standards and some methodical issues that have to be taken into account when using BLS data to analyze loan developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Beer & Walter Waschiczek, 2012. "Analyzing Corporate Loan Growth in Austria Using Bank Lending Survey Data," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 61-80.
    • Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbmp:y:2012:i:2:b:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Angela Maddaloni & Jose-Luis Peydro, 2011. "Bank Risk-taking, Securitization, Supervision, and Low Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro-area and the U.S. Lending Standards," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 2121-2165.
    2. Lown, Cara & Morgan, Donald P., 2006. "The Credit Cycle and the Business Cycle: New Findings Using the Loan Officer Opinion Survey," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(6), pages 1575-1597, September.
    3. de Bondt, Gabe & Ferrando, Annalisa & Berg, Jesper & Van Rixtel, Adrian & Scopel, Silvia, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    4. Raymond E. Owens & Stacey L. Schreft, 1991. "Survey evidence of tighter credit conditions: what does it mean?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 77(Mar), pages 29-34.
    5. Matteo Ciccarelli & Angela Maddaloni & Jose Luis Peydro, 2015. "Trusting the Bankers: A New Look at the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 979-1002, October.
    6. Del Giovane, Paolo & Eramo, Ginette & Nobili, Andrea, 2011. "Disentangling demand and supply in credit developments: A survey-based analysis for Italy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2719-2732, October.
    7. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    8. Blaes, Barno, 2011. "Bank-related loan supply factors during the crisis: An analysis based on the German bank lending survey," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,31, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    10. Martin Feldkircher & Stefan Zeugner, 2009. "Benchmark Priors Revisited: On Adaptive Shrinkage and the Supermodel Effect in Bayesian Model Averaging," IMF Working Papers 2009/202, International Monetary Fund.
    11. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
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    13. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    15. Raymond E. Owens, 1991. "Credit crunch?," Cross Sections, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-3.
    16. Jesper Berg & Annalisa Ferrando & Gabe de Bondt & Silvia Scopel, 2005. "The bank lending survey for the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 23, European Central Bank.
    17. Cara S. Lown & Donald P. Morgan & Sonali Rohatgi, 2000. "Listening to loan officers: the impact of commercial credit standards on lending and output," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-16.
    18. Lacroix, R. & Montornès, J., 2009. "Analysis of the scope of the results of the bank lending survey in relation to credit data," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 33-51, Winter.
    19. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ola Melander, 2008. "Credit Matters: Empirical Evidence on U.S. Macro-Financial Linkages," IMF Working Papers 2008/169, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit; lending standards; loan demand; bank lending survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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