IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednci/y2005ijannv.11no.1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey

Author

Abstract

Business surveys often give early signals of the direction and magnitude of economic activity. One release, the relatively new Empire State Manufacturing Survey, is demonstrating an ability to provide information ahead of U.S. production and employment trends. In fact, the predictive power of this survey appears to be at least equal to that of two established manufacturing surveys. This issue is part of the Second District Highlights series.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Deitz & Charles Steindel, 2005. "The predictive abilities of the New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing Survey," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 11(Jan).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2005:i:jan:n:v.11no.1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci11-1.html
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/current_issues/ci11-1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthew Harris & Raymond E. Owens & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte, 2004. "Using manufacturing surveys to assess economic conditions," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Fall), pages 65-92.
    2. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Research Paper 9124, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Ethan S. Harris, 1991. "Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aut), pages 61-69.
    4. Timothy G. Schiller & Michael E. Trebing, 2003. "Taking the measure of manufacturing," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Q4, pages 24-37.
    5. William R. Keeton & Michael Verba, 2004. "What can regional manufacturing surveys tell us? lessons from the Tenth District," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 89(Q III), pages 39-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jimenez Polanco, Miguel A. & Ramírez Escoboza, Merlym, 2015. "Predicción de la Actividad Económica a Partir de Indicadores de las Encuestas de Opinión Empresarial: Evidencia para República Dominicana [Forecasting Economic Activity using Manufacturing Opinion ," MPRA Paper 75861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
    3. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "Extracting information on economic activity from business and consumer surveys in an emerging economy (Chile)," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(3), pages 098-131, December.
    4. Thomas J. Cunningham, 2006. "The predictive power of the Senior Loan Officer Survey: do lending officers know anything special?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miller, Tom W. & Sabbarese, Donald, 2012. "An Economic Indicator for the State of the Economy in the Southeastern U.S," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-27.
    2. Jesus Cañas & Amy Jordan, 2018. "Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance," Working Papers 1807, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Jesus Cañas & Emily Kerr, 2014. "Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: survey methodology and performance," Working Papers 1416, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Claudia Godbout & Jocelyn Jacob, 2010. "Le pouvoir de prévision des indices PMI," Discussion Papers 10-3, Bank of Canada.
    5. Radoslaw Sobko & Maria Klonowska-Matynia, 2021. "The Relationship between the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Economic Growth: The Case for Poland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 198-219.
    6. Jimenez Polanco, Miguel A. & Ramírez Escoboza, Merlym, 2015. "Predicción de la Actividad Económica a Partir de Indicadores de las Encuestas de Opinión Empresarial: Evidencia para República Dominicana [Forecasting Economic Activity using Manufacturing Opinion ," MPRA Paper 75861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Duca, John V., 2013. "Did the commercial paper funding facility prevent a Great Depression style money market meltdown?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 747-758.
    8. Caroline Jardet & Baptiste Meunier, 2022. "Nowcasting world GDP growth with high‐frequency data," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1181-1200, September.
    9. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2014. "Purchasing and supply managers provide early clues on the direction of the US economy: An application of a new market-timing test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 599-618.
    10. Rolando F. Peláez, 2018. "Improving the usefulness of the Purchasing Managers’ Index," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 195-201, October.
    11. SAHIN, Emrah & GUNGOR, Selim & KARACA, Suleyman Serdar, 2020. "Empirical Analysis Of The Relationship Between Purchasing Managers Index And Bist Industrial Index Under Structural Breaks," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(3), pages 6-22, September.
    12. Lombardi, Marco J. & Maier, Philipp, 2011. "Forecasting economic growth in the euro area during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 1379, European Central Bank.
    13. Kilinc, Zubeyir & Yucel, Eray, 2016. "PMI Thresholds for GDP Growth," MPRA Paper 70929, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Evan F. Koenig, 2002. "Using the Purchasing Managers' Index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 1(6).
    15. Ramazan Yanik & Asfia Binte Osman & Ozcan Ozturk, 2020. "Impact of manufacturing PMI on stock market index: A study on Turkey," Journal of Administrative and Business Studies, Professor Dr. Usman Raja, vol. 6(3), pages 104-108.
    16. Valentina Aprigliano, 2011. "The relationship between the PMI and the Italian index of industrial production and the impact of the latest economic crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 820, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Herwadkar, Snehal S. & Ghosh, Saurabh, 2020. "Is PMI a good leading indicator of industrial production?: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 97924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gabe de Bondt, 2012. "Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?," EcoMod2012 3896, EcoMod.
    19. Stack, Martin & Downing, Ricard, 2005. "Another look at offshoring: Which jobs are at risk and why?," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 513-523.
    20. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2006. "Workers’ Compensation and State Employment Growth," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 121-145, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:2005:i:jan:n:v.11no.1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.