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the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey’s indicators (in French)

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  • G.Levieuge

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the relevance and the predictive content of the indicators stemming from the ten-year-old quarterly Bank Lending Survey (BLS) on credit distribution. First, we validate the coherence of the BLS indicators by cross-checking indicators that are supposed to deliver similar information, and by comparing them to a broad set of actual macroeconomic and financial variables. Second, econometric tests reveal that the demand-side indicators of the BLS, but not the supply-side ones, are particularly relevant for explaining and forecasting loans to non-financial companies in France.

Suggested Citation

  • G.Levieuge, 2015. "the coherence and the predictive content of the French Bank Lending Survey’s indicators (in French)," Working papers 567, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:567
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank Lending Survey; Credit demand; Credit supply; Forecasts.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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