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A model with explicit expectations for Belgium

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Author Info

  • Philippe Jeanfils

    ()
    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

This paper presents a new quarterly macroeconometric model of the Belgian economy. It is intended to contribute to existing analytical work covering the specific transmission mechanisms of the euro area monetary policy in the Belgian economy. It also contributes to the forecast exercises and to their risk analysis. Finally it is also used to analyse the consequences of specific Belgian shocks. The model is small-scale and based on recent macroeconomic theory. The model's dynamics not only allow for the lagged adjustments from economic agents due to transaction costs to be taken into consideration, but also for agents to anticipate future developments and policy reactions. In simulations, expectation formation can be assumed either to be model consistent or to be generated by VAR-based extrapolations. On the basis of a few diagnostic simulations it is shown that in the long run the model converges to its steady state, defined by the underlying economic theory.

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File URL: http://www.nbb.be/doc/oc/repec/reswpp/WP04.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 04.

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Length: 61 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200003-3

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Cited by:
  1. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Garganas, Eugenie N. & Hall, Stephen G., 2012. "Consumer credit in an era of financial liberalisation: An overreaction to repressed demand?," MPRA Paper 41819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jerome, 2004. "The euro area viewed as a single economy: how does it respond to shocks?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 833-875, September.
  3. Monteforte, Libero, 2007. "Aggregation bias in macro models: Does it matter for the euro area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 236-261, March.
  4. Jérôme Henry & Pablo Hernández de Cos & Sandro Momigliano, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconometrics models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0418, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Willman, Alpo & Estrada, Ángel, 2002. "The Spanish block of the ESCB-multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0149, European Central Bank.
  6. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
  7. Maria Demertzis & Peter van Els & Sybille Grob & Marga Peeters, 2006. "EUROMON: the multi-country model of De Nederlandsche Bank," DNB Occasional Studies 401, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. O'Donnell, Nuala, 2005. "Re-Estimation of the Trade Block in the Banks Quarterly Econometric Model," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 97-117, July.
  9. Marc-André Gosselin & René Lalonde, 2003. "Un modèle « PAC » d'analyse et de prévision des dépense des ménages américains," Working Papers 03-13, Bank of Canada.
  10. Henry, Jérôme & Hernández de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2004. "The short-term impact of government budgets on prices: evidence from macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 0396, European Central Bank.
  11. Calza, Alessandro & Manrique, Marta & Sousa, João, 2003. "Aggregate loans to the euro area private sector," Working Paper Series 0202, European Central Bank.
  12. repec:pra:mprapa:40579 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Demertzis, Maria & Van Els, Peter & Peeters, H.M.M., 2002. "EUROMON: De Nederlandsche Bank's multi-country model," MPRA Paper 29634, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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