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Noname - A new quarterly model for Belgium

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  • Philippe Jeanfils

    ()
    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

  • Koen Burggraeve

    ()
    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Abstract

This paper gives an overview of the present version of the quarterly model for the Belgian economy built at the National Bank of Belgium (NBB). This model can provide quantitative input into the policy analysis and projection processes within a framework that has explicit micro-foundations and expectations. This new version is also compatible with the ESA95 national accounts. This model called Noname is relatively compact. The intertemporal optimisation problem of households and firms is subject to polynomial adjustment costs, which yields richer dynamic specifications than the more usual quadratic cost function. Other characteristics are: pricing-to-market and hence flexible mark-ups and incomplete pass-through, a CES production function with an elasticity of substitution between capital and labour below one, time-dependent wage contracting à la Dotsey, King and Wollman. Most of the equations taken individually have acceptable statistical properties and diagnostic simulations suggest that the impulse responses of the model to exogenous shocks are reasonable. Its structure allows simulations to be conducted under the assumption of rational expectations as well as under alternative expectations formations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 68.

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Length: 71 pages
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200505-2

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Keywords: Econometric modelling; Pricing-to-market; CES production function; Wage bargaining; Polynomial adjustment costs; Rational expectations.;

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  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth," Working Papers 493, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, October.
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  7. P.A. Tinsley, 1993. "Fitting both data and theories: polynomial adjustment costs and error- correction decision rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  9. Paul R. Bergin & Robert C. Feenstra, 1999. "Pricing to Market, Staggered Contracts, and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," NBER Working Papers 7026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Flint Brayton & Eileen Mauskopf & David Reifschneider & Peter Tinsley & John Williams, 1997. "The role of expectations in the FRB/US macroeconomic model," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Apr, pages 227-245.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December.
  13. P. A. Tinsley, 1998. "Rational error correction," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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