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Unemployment in the European Union: Institutions, Prices, and Growth

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  • Marika Karanassou
  • Hector Sala
  • Dennis Snower

Abstract

This paper presents a reappraisal of unemployment movements in the European Union. Our analysis is based on the chain reaction theory of unemployment, which focuses on (a) the interaction among labor market adjustment processes, (b) the interplay between these adjustment processes and the dynamic structure of labor market shocks, and (c) the interaction between the adjustment processes and economic growth. We divide the shocks into institutional variables, price variables, and growth drivers. Estimating a system of labor market equations for a panel of EU countries, we derive the dynamic unemployment responses to each shock. Our analysis permits us to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects of the shocks. Different shocks generate different degrees of “unemployment persistence” (responses to temporary shocks) and “unemployment responsiveness” (responses to permanent shocks). We find that the growth drivers play a dominant role in accounting for the main swings in EU unemployment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 1247.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1247

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  1. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  2. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, . "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," Working Papers 122, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis, 2003. "Unemployment in the European Union: a dynamic reappraisal," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-273, March.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Justin Wolfers, 1999. "The Role of Shocks and Institutions in the Rise of European Unemployment: The Aggregate Evidence," NBER Working Papers 7282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1998. "Natural-Rate Theory and OECD Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 782-801, May.
  6. Baltagi, Badi H. & Griffin, James M., 1997. "Pooled estimators vs. their heterogeneous counterparts in the context of dynamic demand for gasoline," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 303-327, April.
  7. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  8. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 1998. "How Labour Market Flexibility Affects Unemployment: Long-Term Implications of the Chain Reaction Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 1826, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Edmund Phelps & Gylfi Zoega, 2001. "Structural booms," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 83-126, 04.
  10. Banerjee, Anindya, 1999. " Panel Data Unit Roots and Cointegration: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 607-29, Special I.
  11. Karanassou, Marika & Snower, Dennis J., 2007. "Characteristics of Unemployment Dynamics. The Chain Reaction Approach," Economics Series 205, Institute for Advanced Studies.
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Cited by:
  1. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Dennis J. Snower, 2006. "Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics: A Critique and a Holistic Perspective," Working Papers 573, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2006. "The Macroeconomics of the Labor Market: Three Fundamental Views," IZA Discussion Papers 2480, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname - A new quarterly model for Belgium," Working Paper Research 68, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Salvador, Pablo F., 2007. "Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: New Insights on the Nordic Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 3066, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2013. "Capital Investment and Equilibrium Unemployment," Economics wp61, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  6. Andrea Vaona, 2005. "Multiplicatively Separable Preferences and Output Persistence," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0511, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.

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