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The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction

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Abstract

This article provides an overview of the Bank of Canada's new economic model, the Quarterly Projection Model (QPM), which has been under development at the Bank since 1989. The model has two roles. It is used to make economic projections, which are conducted quarterly and form an important basis for discussions of monetary policy between staff and senior management. QPM is also a research tool: it was developed to analyse important changes to the economy or macroeconomic policies which require a deeper understanding of long-term economic forces. The model pays particular attention to factors shaping long-term equilibrium, such as stocks of wealth, capital, government debt and net foreign assets. Various sources of dynamics, including the adjustment of forward-looking expectations, operate to determine the transition path to equilibrium and the consistency of expectations. The article discusses the history of QPM and earlier economic models at the Bank, and provides a simple overview of how the model works.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Bank of Canada in its journal Bank of Canada Review.

Volume (Year): 1994 (1994)
Issue (Month): Autumn ()
Pages: 23-38

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Handle: RePEc:bca:bcarev:v:1994:y:1994:i:autumn94:p:23-38

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Cited by:
  1. Tiff Macklem & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, . "GOVERNMENT DEBT AND DEFICITS IN CANADA: A Macro Simulation Analysis," Working Papers 95-4, Bank of Canada.
  2. Doug Hostland, . "CHANGES IN THE INFLATION PROCESS IN CANADA: Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 95-5, Bank of Canada.
  3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 1999. "Vector rational error correction," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1299-1327, September.
  4. Jamie Armour & Ben Fung & Dinah Maclean, 2002. "Taylor Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model," Working Papers 02-1, Bank of Canada.
  5. Armstrong, John & Black, Richard & Laxton, Douglas & Rose, David, 1998. "A robust method for simulating forward-looking models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 489-501, April.
  6. Russell Barnett & Sharon Kozicki & Christopher Petrinec, 2009. "Parsing shocks: real-time revisions to gap and growth projections for Canada," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 247-266.
  7. Duguay, Pierre & Longworth, David, 1998. "Macroeconomic models and policy making at the bank of canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 357-375, July.
  8. Cote, Denise & Kuszczak, John & Lam, Jean-Paul & Liu, Ying & St-Amant, Pierre, 2006. "A comparison of twelve macroeconomic models of the Canadian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 523-562, July.
  9. Richard Black & David Rose, 1997. "Canadian Policy Analysis Model: CPAM," Working Papers 97-16, Bank of Canada.
  10. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
  11. Cote, D. & Hostland, D., 1996. "An Econometric Examination of the Trend Unemployment Rate in Canada," Working Papers 96-7, Bank of Canada.

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