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Rational error correction

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P. A. Tinsley

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Abstract

Under general conditions, linear decision rules of agents with rational expectations are equivalent to restricted error corrections. However, empirical rejections of rational expectation restrictions are the rule, rather than the exception, in macroeconomics. Rejections often are conditioned on the assumption that agents aim to smooth only the levels of actions or are subject to geometric random delays. Generalizations of dynamic frictions on agent activities are suggested that yield closed-form, higher-order decision rules with improved statistical fits and infrequent rejections of rational expectations restrictions. Properties of these generalized "rational" error corrections are illustrated for producer pricing in manufacturing industries.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 1998-37.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:1998-37

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Keywords: Economics;

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  1. Peter N. Ireland, 2000. "Sticky-Price Models of the Business Cycle: Specification and Stability," NBER Working Papers 7511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christopher Martin & Michael Arghyrou & Costas Milas, 2004. "Nonlinear inflation dynamics: evidence from the UK," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 59, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  3. Philippe Jeanfils & Koen Burggraeve, 2005. "Noname \u2013 A new quarterly model for Belgium," Research series 200505-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael Arghyrou & Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2003. "Non-linear Inflationary Dynamics: Evidence from the UK," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-03, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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