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The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles

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Author Info
Finn E. Kydland
Edward C. Prescott

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Abstract

The founding fathers of the Econometric Society defined econometrics to be quantitative economic theory. A vision of theirs was the use of econometrics to provide quantitative answers to business cycle questions. The realization of this dream required a number of advances in pure theory—in particular, the development of modern general equilibrium theory. The econometric problem is how to use these tools along with measurement to answer business cycles questions. In this essay, we review this econometric development and contrast it with the econometric approach that preceded it.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 130.

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Date of creation: 1990
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Publication status: Published in Scandinavian Journal of Economics (Vol. 93, n.2, 1991, pp.161-178)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:130

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Econometrics;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Edward C. Prescott, 1986. "Theory ahead of business cycle measurement," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 9-22. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Shoven, John B. & Whalley, John, 1972. "A general equilibrium calculation of the effects of differential taxation of income from capital in the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 281-321, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "After Keynesian macroeconomics," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr. [Downloadable!]
  4. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1996. "Life-Cycle Economies and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 63(3), pages 465-89, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1990. "Real Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 2480, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1989. "The Inflation Tax in a Real Business Cycle Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 733-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Hornstein, Andreas, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, and the importance of productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 299-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1989. "Hours and employment variation in business cycle theory," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 17, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & John B. DONALDSON, 1988. "Efficiency Wages and the Real Business Cycle," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 8803, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  15. Rogerson, Richard, 1988. "Indivisible labor, lotteries and equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 3-16, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Imrohoruglu, Ayse, 1989. "Cost of Business Cycles with Indivisibilities and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(6), pages 1364-83, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Paul Gomme & Jeremy Greenwood, 1992. "On the cyclical allocation of risk," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 71, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Rapping, Leonard A, 1969. "Real Wages, Employment, and Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(5), pages 721-54, Sept./Oct. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frain, John, 1995. "Econometrics and Truth," Research Technical Papers 2/RT/95, Central Bank & Financial Services Authority of Ireland (CBFSAI). [Downloadable!]
  2. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Staff Report 178, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Fabio Canova & Eva Ortega, 1996. "Testing Calibrated General Equilibrium Models," Economics Working Papers 166, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Freeman, John R., 1996. "A Computable Equilibrium Model for the Study of Political Economy," Bulletins 7484, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Spanos, Aris, 2008. "The 'Pre-Eminence of Theory' versus the 'General-to-Specific' Cointegrated VAR Perspectives in Macro-Econometric Modeling," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-25, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
  6. Eva Ortega, . "The Spanish business cycle and its relationship to Europe," Studies on the Spanish Economy 09, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  7. In Choi & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1997. "Regressions for Partially Identified, Cointegrated Simultaneous Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1162, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  8. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Diego Vásquez Escobar, 2004. "Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes y Fluctuaciones en la Economía Colombiana: 1950-2002," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003550, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Robert G. King, 1995. "Quantitative theory and econometrics," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 53-105. [Downloadable!]
  11. P. A. Tinsley, 1998. "Rational error correction," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Uhlig, H., 1995. "A toolkit for analyzing nonlinear dynamic stochastic models easily," Discussion Paper 97, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Roberto Ellery Jr & Mirta Bugarin & Victor Gomes & Arilton Teixeira, 2003. "Investment and Capital Accumulation in Brazil From 1970 To 2000: a Neoclassical View," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31th Brazilian Economics Meeting] b20, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics]. [Downloadable!]
  14. Pillai N., Vijayamohanan, 2008. "In Quest of Truth: The War of Methods in Economics," MPRA Paper 8866, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  15. James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 2004. "Learning and structural change in macroeconomic data," Working Papers 2004-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  16. Howitt, Richard & Reynaud, Arnaud & Msangi, Siwa & Knapp, Keith, 2002. "Calibrated Stochastic Dynamic Models for Resource Management," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19620, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association). [Downloadable!]
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