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The 'Pre-Eminence of Theory' versus the 'General-to-Specific' Cointegrated VAR Perspectives in Macro-Econometric Modeling

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Author Info
Spanos, Aris
Abstract

The primary aim of the paper is to place current methodological discussions on empirical modeling contrasting the 'theory first' versus the 'data first' perspectives in the context of a broader methodological framework with a view to constructively appraise them. In particular, the paper focuses on Colander?s argument in his paper ?Economists, Incentives, Judgement and Empirical Work? relating to the two different perspectives in Europe and the US that are currently dominating empirical macro-econometric modeling and delves deeper into their methodological/philosophical foundations. It is argued that the key to establishing a constructive dialogue between them is provided by a better understanding of the role of data in modern statistical inference, and how that relates to the centuries old issue of the realisticness of economic theories. --

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2008-25.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:7336

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Related research
Keywords: Econometric methodology; ?general-to-specific?; pre-eminence of theory; VAR; statistical adequacy; realisticness of theory; statistical model;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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  1. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Colander, David C., 2008. "Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and Empirical Work," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "The econometrics of the general equilibrium approach to business cycles," Staff Report 130, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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