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Energy price shocks, capacity utilization and business cycle fluctuations

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  • Mary G. Finn
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    Abstract

    This study focuses on the analysis of energy price shocks in the generation of business cycle phenomena. These shocks are transmitted through endogenous fluctuations in capital utilization. The production structure of the model gives rise to an empirical measure of ‘true’ technology growth that is exempt from recent criticisms levelled at the standard measure, i.e., Solow residual growth. The model is calibrated and evaluated for the U.S. economy using annual data over the 1960–1988 period. At business cycle frequencies, the model accounts for 74–91 percent of the volatility of U.S. output; closely matches the strong negative correlation between output and energy prices manifested in the U.S. data; and is generally consistent with other facts characterizing U.S. business cycles. Energy price shocks make a significant quantitative contribution to the model’s ability to explain the data.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 50.

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    Date of creation: 1991
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:50

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    Keywords: Business cycles ; Power resources - Prices;

    References

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    1. Finn, M.G. & Hoffman, D.L. & Schlagenhauf, D.E., 1989. "Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Relationships In Barter And Monetary Economies: An Empirical Analysis," RCER Working Papers 208, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January.
    3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 245-73, April.
    4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September.
    5. Jeremy Greenwood & Gregory W. Huffman, 1991. "Tax analysis in a real business cycle model: on measuring Harberger triangles and Okun gaps," Staff Report 138, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
    7. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
    10. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi, 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time over the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1188-214, December.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    12. Stockman, Alan C & Tesar, Linda L, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 168-85, March.
    13. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    14. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. "Hours and Employment Variation in Business Cycle Theory," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 63-81, January.
    15. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280.
    16. Gary D. Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1987. "Straight Time and Overtime in Equilibrium," UCLA Economics Working Papers 455, UCLA Department of Economics.
    17. Hornstein, Andreas, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, and the importance of productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 299-316, June.
    18. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November.
    19. repec:fth:calaec:16-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Finn, Mary G., 1990. "On savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 1-21, August.
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    Cited by:
    1. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano, . "Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-03, FEDEA.
    2. John Haltiwanger & Steven J. Davis, 1999. "On the Driving Forces behind Cyclical Movements in Employment and Job Reallocation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1234-1258, December.
    3. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    4. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin Moreno, . "Perturbaciones petroliferas y fluctuaciones agregadas," Studies on the Spanish Economy 134, FEDEA.
    6. Ingram, B.F. & DeJong, D.N. & Whiteman, C.H. & Wen, Y., 1996. "Cyclical Implications of the Variable Utilization of Physical and Human Capital," Working Papers 96-12, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
    7. Alain Paquet & Benoit Robidoux, 1997. "Issues on the Measurement of the Solow Residual and the Testing of its Exogeneity: a Tale of Two Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 51, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    8. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    9. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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