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Energy price shocks, capacity utilization and business cycle fluctuations

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Author Info
Mary G. Finn
Abstract

This study focuses on the analysis of energy price shocks in the generation of business cycle phenomena. These shocks are transmitted through endogenous fluctuations in capital utilization. The production structure of the model gives rise to an empirical measure of ‘true’ technology growth that is exempt from recent criticisms levelled at the standard measure, i.e., Solow residual growth. The model is calibrated and evaluated for the U.S. economy using annual data over the 1960–1988 period. At business cycle frequencies, the model accounts for 74–91 percent of the volatility of U.S. output; closely matches the strong negative correlation between output and energy prices manifested in the U.S. data; and is generally consistent with other facts characterizing U.S. business cycles. Energy price shocks make a significant quantitative contribution to the model’s ability to explain the data.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics with number 50.

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Date of creation: 1991
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmem:50

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Power resources - Prices;

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  1. Canadian Macro Study Group
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Finn, Mary G., 1990. "On savings and investment dynamics in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 1-21, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1991. "Hours and Employment Variation in Business Cycle Theory," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 63-81, January.
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  3. Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z., 1991. "The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycle," RCER Working Papers 268, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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  4. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1991. "Real Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 797-818, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hansen, Gary D., 1985. "Indivisible labor and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 309-327, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Finn, M.G. & Hoffman, D.L. & Schlagenhauf, D.E., 1988. "Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Relationships In Barter And Monetary Economies: An Empirical Analysis," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8805, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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  7. Hornstein, Andreas, 1993. "Monopolistic competition, increasing returns to scale, and the importance of productivity shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 299-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1993. "Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 3556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Alan C. Stockman & Linda L. Tesar, 1995. "Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," NBER Working Papers 3566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Greenwood, J. & Huffman, G., 1991. "Tax Analysis in A Real Business Cycle Model: On Measuring Harberger Triangles and Okun Gaps," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9103, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
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  15. Stockman, A.C. & Tesar, L.L., 1990. "Tastes And Technology In A Two-Country Model Of The Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 16-90, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  16. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Christiano, Lawrence J., 1988. "Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 247-280. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Hansen, Gary D. & Sargent, Thomas J., 1988. "Straight time and overtime in equilibrium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 281-308. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano, . "Optimal Oil Taxation in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 02-03, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Carlos de Miguel & Baltasar Manzano & Jose M. Martin Moreno, . "Perturbaciones petroliferas y fluctuaciones agregadas," Studies on the Spanish Economy 134, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  4. David N. DeJong & Beth F. Ingram & Yi Wen & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Cyclical Implications of the Variable Utilization of Physical and Human Capital," Macroeconomics 9609004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Alain Paquet & Benoit Robidoux, 1997. "Issues on the Measurement of the Solow Residual and the Testing of its Exogeneity: a Tale of Two Countries," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 51, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
  6. Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Oil Prices and the Rise and Fall of the U.S. Real Exchange Rate," International Finance 9502001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1996. "On the Driving Forces Behind Cyclical Movement, in Employment and Job Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 5775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Robert G. King & Sergio T. Rebelo, 2000. "Resuscitating Real Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 7534, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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