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A guided tour of the world of rational expectations models and optimal policies

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Author Info
Philippe Jeanfils () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

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Abstract

This working paper after quickly reviewing the different types of existing macro models presents some basic tools that have proved useful for analysing monetary policy in recent years. Through the use of a simple quantitative forward-looking model of output, inflation and interest rate determination, the paper tries to familiarise the reader with some of the techniques used in research on optimal policy, including rational expectations theory, timeconsistency analysis, the Lucas critique and computer simulation techniques. The explanation proceeds gradually. First, a single linear difference equation is used to explain how solutions to models with forward-looking expectations can be obtained. Then it deals with methods used to solve more general models for optimal policies. Finally, the potential usefulness of these techniques is explained through a series of applications to monetary policy.

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number 2001-06.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2001
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Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:2001-06

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Inflation Stabilization and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Brayton, Flint & Levin, Andrew & Lyon, Ralph & Williams, John C., 1997. "The evolution of macro models at the Federal Reserve Board," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 43-81, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Bennett T. McCallum, 1999. "Analysis of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Methodological Issues," NBER Working Papers 7395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Philippe Jeanfils, 2000. "A model with explicit expectations for Belgium," Research series 200003-3, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Frank Smets, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Stephen Poloz & David Rose & Robert Tetlow, 1994. "The Bank of Canada's new Quarterly Projection Model (QPM): An introduction," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1994(Autumn), pages 23-38. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hunt, Benjamin & Rose, David & Scott, Alasdair, 2000. "The core model of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Forecasting and Policy System," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 247-274, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Timeless Perspectives vs. Discretionary Monetary Policy In Forward-Looking Models," NBER Working Papers 7915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Fuhrer, Jeff & Moore, George, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Günter Coenen & Volker Wieland, 2000. "A small estimated Euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," Working Paper Series 30, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  22. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, . "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Kim, Jinill, 2000. "Constructing and estimating a realistic optimizing model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 329-359, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Currie,David & Levine,Paul, 1993. "Rules, Reputation and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521441964, August.
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