Luc Aucremanne () (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)
Abstract
This paper examines robust estimators of core inflation for Belgian historical CPI data, and for euro area Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices. Evidence of fat tails in the cross-sections of price changes is provided by traditional measures, as well as by a robust measure of the tail weights that is not vulnerable to the masking phenomenon. Trimmed means are considered in the first instance. We introduce a new estimator where the optimal trimming percentage is the lowest percentage for which the hypothesis of normality of the trimmed samples cannot be rejected on the basis of the Jarque-Bera statistic. Two variants are considered, one with a constant and one with a time-varying optimal trimming percentage. The latter has a higher breakdown point. Symmetric and asymmetric trimming are considered as well. Another robust estimator, the one-step Huber-type skipped mean, which is less vulnerable to the masking phenomenon, is also examined. It is shown that the robust estimators outperform the traditional core inflation measures found in the literature. However, as traditional measures, they lag rather than lead observed inflation. This was particularly so in the 70s and the 80s when the oil price shocks had substantial second-round effects on Belgian inflation.
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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Research series with number
200003-2.
Length: 76 pages Date of creation: Mar 2000 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200003-2
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
NBER Working Papers
4303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994.
"Measuring Core Inflation,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Peter J Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf & Mia Hubert, 2003.
"Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 81-105
Bank for International Settlements.
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