The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation
AbstractThis paper examines robust estimators of core inflation for Belgian historical CPI data, and for euro area Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices. Evidence of fat tails in the cross-sections of price changes is provided by traditional measures, as well as by a robust measure of the tail weights that is not vulnerable to the masking phenomenon. Trimmed means are considered in the first instance. We introduce a new estimator where the optimal trimming percentage is the lowest percentage for which the hypothesis of normality of the trimmed samples cannot be rejected on the basis of the Jarque-Bera statistic. Two variants are considered, one with a constant and one with a time-varying optimal trimming percentage. The latter has a higher breakdown point. Symmetric and asymmetric trimming are considered as well. Another robust estimator, the one-step Huber-type skipped mean, which is less vulnerable to the masking phenomenon, is also examined. It is shown that the robust estimators outperform the traditional core inflation measures found in the literature. However, as traditional measures, they lag rather than lead observed inflation. This was particularly so in the 70s and the 80s when the oil price shocks had substantial second-round effects on Belgian inflation.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 02.
Length: 76 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boulevard de Berlaimont 14, B-1000 Bruxelles
Phone: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 25 34
Fax: (+ 32) (0) 2 221 31 62
Web page: http://www.nbb.be
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2003.
"A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 269-306, 08.
- Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "A first assessment of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Papers 0205, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Vega, Juan Luis & Wynne, Mark A., 2001. "An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0053, European Central Bank.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.