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An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area

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Author Info
Juan Luis Vega-Croissier () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, Postfach 16 03 19, 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Mark A. Wynne () (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, PO Box 655906, Dallas , TX 75265-5906, United States.)

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Abstract

We examine two measures of core inflation which have been proposed in recent years: the limited-influence estimators of core inflation pioneered by Bryan and Cecchetti (1994); and the Edgeworth or variance-weighted price index discussed by Diewert (1995). We compare these measures with traditional "Ex. Food & Energy"-type measures and evaluate them on the basis of two criteria: their ability to track movements in trend inflation; and their ability to predict future headline inflation. We do find evidence that traditional "Ex. Food & Energy"-type measure of core inflation may be dominated by alternative measures and conclude that trimmed-mean measures of core inflation may be a useful input to the monetary policy process. These conclusions, nonetheless, are necessarily tentative and subject to strong caveats due to the short span of data on which inference can be drawn. JEL Classification: E31.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 053.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20010053

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Related research
Keywords: Euro area; HICP; core inflation.;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Shiratsuka, Shigenori, 1997. "Inflation Measures for Monetary Policy: Measuring the Underlying Inflation Trend and Its Implication for Monetary Policy Implementation," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 15(2), pages 1-26, December. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aucremanne, L., 2000. "The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," Papers 2, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
  3. Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Research series 200003-2, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
  4. Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "A statistical measure of core inflation," MPRA Paper 11362, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997. "Efficient Inflation Estimation," NBER Working Papers 6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Timothy Cogley, 1998. "A simple adaptive measure of core inflation," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory and Econometrics 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Ball, Laurence & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(1), pages 161-93, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Diewert, W.E., 1995. "On the Stochastic Approach to Index Numbers," UBC Departmental Archives 95-31, UBC Department of Economics.
  12. Michael F. Bryan & Christopher J. Pike, 1991. "Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec 1. [Downloadable!]
  13. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Jonathan Kearns, 1998. "The Distribution and Measurement of Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9810, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  15. Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bas van Aarle & Harry Garretsen & Florence Huart, 2003. "Transatlantic Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "A first assessment of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Papers 02 05, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Livio Stracca & Ali Al-Nowaihi, 2002. "Non-standard Central Bank loss functions; skewed risks; and certainty equivalence," Working Paper Series 129, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios, 2001. "Spectral based methods to identify common trends and common cycles," Working Paper Series 062, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Virginie Traclet, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?," Working Papers 04-28, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Mia Hubert & Peter J. Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf, 2002. "Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities," Research series 200205-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Veronese, 2001. "A core inflation index for the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 435, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. L. Aucremanne, 2001. "The use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 61, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," MPRA Paper 3520, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Seppo Honkapohja & Kaushik Mitra, 2002. "Learning stability in economics with heterogenous agents," Working Paper Series 120, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2003. "Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
    [A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]    ," MPRA Paper 7714, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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