An evaluation of some measures of core inflation for the euro area
AbstractWe examine two measures of core inflation which have been proposed in recent years: the limited-influence estimators of core inflation pioneered by Bryan and Cecchetti (1994); and the Edgeworth or variance-weighted price index discussed by Diewert (1995). We compare these measures with traditional 'Ex. Food & Energy'-type measures and evaluate them on the basis of two criteria: their ability to track movements in trend inflation; and their ability to predict future headline inflation. We do find evidence that traditional 'Ex. Food & Energy'-type measure of core inflation may be dominated by alternative measures and conclude that trimmed-mean measures of core inflation may be a useful input to the monetary policy process. These conclusions, nonetheless, are necessarily tentative and subject to strong caveats due to the short span of data on which inference can be drawn JEL Classification: E31
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 0053.
Date of creation: Apr 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Postfach 16 03 19, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/home/html/index.en.html
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Press and Information Division, European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Luc Aucremanne, 2000. "The use of robust estimators as measures of core inflation," Working Paper Research 02, National Bank of Belgium.
- Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rodney L. Wiggins II, 1997.
"Efficient Inflation Estimation,"
NBER Working Papers
6183, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlos Robalo Marques & Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento, 2000.
"Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators,"
w200003, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Robalo Marques, Carlos & Duarte Neves, Pedro & Morais Sarmento, Luis, 2003. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 765-775, July.
- Pedro Duarte Neves & Luís Morais Sarmento & Carlos Robalo Marques, 1999. "Evaluating core inflation indicators," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Aucremanne, L., 2000. "The Use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," Papers 2, Warwick - Development Economics Research Centre.
- Quah, Danny & Vahey, Shaun P, 1995.
"Measuring Core Inflation?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1130-44, September.
- Quah, Danny, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Quah and Vahey core inflation estimation," Statistical Software Components RTZ00139, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Danny Quah & Shaun Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," Bank of England working papers 31, Bank of England.
- Danny Quah & Danny Quah & Shaun P. Vahey, 1995. "Measuring Core Inflation," CEP Discussion Papers dp0254, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997.
"Measuring short-run inflation for central bankers,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 143-155.
- Ball, L. & Mankiw, G.H., 1992.
"Relative-Price Change as Aggregate Supply Shocks,"
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1609, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1993. "Relative-price changes as aggregate supply shocks," Working Papers 93-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1995. "Relative-Price Changes as Aggregate Supply Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael F. Bryan & Christopher J. Pike, 1991. "Median price changes: an alternative approach to measuring current monetary inflation," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Dec.
- Meyler, Aidan, 1999.
"A Statistical Measure Of Core Inflation,"
Research Technical Papers
2/RT/99, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Diewert, Erwin, 2007. "Index Numbers," Economics working papers diewert-07-01-03-08-17-23, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2007.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Jonathan Kearns, 1998. "The Distribution and Measurement of Inflation," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9810, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- repec:wop:imespe:9707 is not listed on IDEAS
- Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
- Nathan S. Balke & Mark A. Wynne, 1996.
"An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation,"
9609, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Balke, Nathan S. & Wynne, Mark A., 2000. "An equilibrium analysis of relative price changes and aggregate inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 269-292, April.
- Freeman, Donald G., 1998. "Do core inflation measures help forecast inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 143-147, February.
- Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2003.
"A First Assessment of Some Measures of Core Inflation for the Euro Area,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 4, pages 269-306, 08.
- Juan-Luis Vega & Mark A. Wynne, 2002. "A first assessment of some measures of core inflation for the euro area," Working Papers 0205, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Virginie Traclet, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Canada: Some Interesting Principles for EMU?," Working Papers 04-28, Bank of Canada.
- Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2001.
"A Core Inflation Index for the Euro Area,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Ozmen, 2009. "Design and Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures for Turkey," Working Papers 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
- Cotter, John & Dowd, Kevin, 2006.
"U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis,"
3520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Riccardo Cristadoro & Giuseppe Saporito & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013.
"Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?,"
Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1065-1086, June.
- Cristadoro, Riccardo & Venditti, Fabrizio & Saporito, Giuseppe, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Working Paper Series 0900, European Central Bank.
- Riccardo Cristadoro & Fabrizio Venditti & Giuseppe Saporito, 2008. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 677, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Luc Aucremanne & Guy Brys & Peter J Rousseeuw & Anja Struyf & Mia Hubert, 2003.
"Inflation, relative prices and nominal rigidities,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 81-105
Bank for International Settlements.
- Ernest Gnan & Mar Gudmundsson & Klaus Liebscher & Dietrich Domanski & Alexandra Heath & Juan Delgado & Walter Boltz & Birger Vikoren & Vasily Astrov & Stephan Barisitz & Simon-Erik Ollus & Ulrich Kohl, 2008. "Commodities, Energy and Finance," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2008/2 edited by Ernest Gnan & Mar Gudmundsson & Morten Balling.
- L. Aucremanne, 2001. "The use of Robust Estimators as Measures of Core Inflation," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 61, Netherlands Central Bank.
- Rapacciuolo, Ciro, 2003.
"Un semplice modello univariato per la previsione a breve termine dell'inflazione italiana
[A simple model for the short term forecasting of Italian inflation]," MPRA Paper 7714, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.