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Ukraine: Macroeconomic Developments and Structural Change with a Special Focus on the Energy Sector

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    Abstract

    Major traits of Ukraine’s macroeconomic and structural development since the turn of the millennium constitute the focus of this study. Following a brief look back at the decade-long recession of the 1990s, the authors identify positive terms-of-trade shocks, the cumulative effect of structural reforms and the strong recovery of domestic demand as the underpinnings of the country’s robust economic recovery of 2000–2004, while a halt, respectively reversal, of terms-of-trade gains and a deterioration of the investment climate are regarded as the driving forces of the sharp slowdown of 2005 and early 2006. Fiscal policy and tax reforms, monetary and exchange rate policies, and the evolution of external accounts are analyzed in more detail. Given Ukraine’s extremely energy-intensive economic and export structure and concomitant vulnerability, energy and gas sector developments are given prominence on the structural front. A near-term economic outlook wraps up the study.

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    File URL: http://www.oenb.at/dms/oenb/Publikationen/Volkswirtschaft/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration/2006/Focus-on-European-Economic-Integration-Q1-06/chapters/feei_2006_1_studies_1_tcm16-43661.pdf
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    Article provided by Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank) in its journal Focus on European Economic Integration.

    Volume (Year): (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 158-176

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    Handle: RePEc:onb:oenbfi:y:2006:i:1:b:5

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    1. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Ukraine," IMF Staff Country Reports 05/415, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Vasily Astrov & Vladimir Gligorov & Peter Havlik & Mario Holzner & Gabor Hunya & Jari Jumpponen & Jatta Kinnunen & Sebastian Leitner & Zdenek Lukas & Anton Mihailov & Leon Podkaminer & Josef Pöschl &, 2005. "Accelerating GDP Growth, Improved Prospects for European Integration," wiiw Research Reports 314, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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