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Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time

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Author Info
Roman Horváth () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic, Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic)

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Abstract

This paper examines policy neutral rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. First, we estimate it using GMM. Second, we apply a structural timevarying parameter model with endogenous regressors to evaluate the fluctuations of policy neutral rate over time. The results suggest that there is substantial interest rate smoothing and central bank primarily responds to inflation (forecast) developments. The estimated parameters seem to sustain the equilibrium determinacy. We find that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area reflecting capital accumulation, smaller risk premium, equilibrium exchange rate appreciation as well as successful disinflation in the Czech economy.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number 2007/01.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007
Date of revision: Jan 2007
Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2007_01

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Related research
Keywords: policy neutral rate; Taylor rule; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  7. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Clark, Todd E. & Kozicki, Sharon, 2005. "Estimating equilibrium real interest rates in real time," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 395-413, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2006. "Time-varying parameter models with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 21-26, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Adam Gersl & Tomás Holub, 2006. "Foreign Exchange Interventions Under Inflation Targeting: The Czech Experience," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(4), pages 475-491, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Athanasios Orphanides, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real-Time Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 964-985, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Katharine S. Neiss and Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Real Interest Rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 145, Society for Computational Economics.
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  16. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Nicola Giammarioli & Natacha Valla, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 233, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Jaromir Benes & Papa M'B. P. N'Diaye, 2004. "A Multivariate Filter for Measuring Potential Output and the NAIRU: Application to the Czech Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/45, International Monetary Fund.
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  22. Jorge Sicilia & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "Is the European Central Bank (and the United States Federal Reserve) predictable?," Working Paper Series 192, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part II. Square root of n-consistency," Working Papers IES 2007/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  2. Miloslav Vošvrda & Jan Kodera, 2007. "Goodwin's Predator-Prey Model with Endogenous Technological Progress," Working Papers IES 2007/09, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part I. Consistency," Working Papers IES 2007/05, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jan Ámos Víšek, 2007. "The Instrumental Weighted Variables. Part III. Asymptotic Representation," Working Papers IES 2007/07, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  5. Karel Janda, 2007. "Instituce státní úvěrové podpory v České republice [available in Czech only]," Working Papers IES 2007/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2007. [Downloadable!]
  6. Adam Geršl, 2007. "Foreign Banks, Foreign Lending and Cross-Border Contagion: Evidence from the BIS Data," Working Papers IES 2007/08, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007. [Downloadable!]
  7. Ondřej Schneider, 2007. "The EU Budget Dispute - A Blessing in Disguise?," Working Papers IES 2007/14, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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