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Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Roman Horváth () (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic , Czech National Bank, Prague, Czech Republic )
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This paper examines policy neutral rate in real time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1-2006:09 estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. First, we estimate it using GMM. Second, we apply a structural timevarying parameter model with endogenous regressors to evaluate the fluctuations of policy neutral rate over time. The results suggest that there is substantial interest rate smoothing and central bank primarily responds to inflation (forecast) developments. The estimated parameters seem to sustain the equilibrium determinacy. We find that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over sample period to the levels comparable to those of in the euro area reflecting capital accumulation, smaller risk premium, equilibrium exchange rate appreciation as well as successful disinflation in the Czech economy.
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Paper provided by Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies in its series Working Papers IES with number
2007/01.
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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2007Date of revision:
Jan 2007Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2007_01Contact details of provider: Postal: Opletalova 26, CZ-110 00 Prague Phone: +420 2 222112330 Fax: +420 2 22112304 Email: Web page: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/ More information through EDIRC
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Keywords: policy neutral rate ; Taylor rule ; time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors ; Other versions of this item:
Find related papers by JEL classification: E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
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