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Searching for the natural rate of interest: a euro area perspective

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Author Info
Jesús Cuaresma
Ernest Gnan
Doris Ritzberger-Gruenwald
Abstract

A time-varying natural rate of interest is estimated for the euro area using a multivariate unobserved components model. The problem of aggregating interest rate data for the pre-EMU period is directly addressed, and a simple method is proposed in order to adjust the risk premia in the interest rate data prior to 1999. We show that, for the pre-EMU period, using risk-unadjusted policy rates leads to periods of high risk premia being erroneously taken as monetary policy replies to the output gap; in contrast, using risk-adjusted policy rates yields an estimate of the reaction of monetary policy to the output gap corresponding approximately to an increase of 40 basis points for a 1%positive deviation of output from potential output. A positive deviation of inflation from its trend of 1%is estimated to have triggered an approximately 1.2%increase in short-term interest rates. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10663-004-0914-5
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Empirica.

Volume (Year): 31 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 185-204
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Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:31:y:2004:i:2:p:185-204

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Keywords: Natural rate of interest unobserved components models monetary policy Taylor rule

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2001. "Measuring the natural rate of interest," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Neiss, Katharine & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Real Interest rate Gap as an Inflation Indicator," CEPR Discussion Papers 2848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39, pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
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  5. Bomfim, Antulio N, 1997. "The Equilibrium Fed Funds Rate and the Indicator Properties of Term-Structure Spreads," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 830-46, October.
  6. Nicola Giammarioli & Natacha Valla, 2003. "The natural real rate of interest in the Euro area," Working Paper Series 233, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2002. "An estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Series 171, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marco Lombardi & Silvia Sgherri, 2007. "(Un)naturally Low? Sequential Monte Carlo Tracking of the US Natural Interest Rate," DNB Working Papers 142, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Julien Garnier & Bjørn-Roger Wilhelmsen, 2005. "The natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area - a joint estimation," Working Paper Series 546, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Roman Horváth, 2006. "Real-Time Time-Varying Equilibrium Interest Rates: Evidence on the Czech Republic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp848, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jean-Stéphane MESONNIER, 2007. "The predictive content of the real interest rate gap for macroeconomic variables in the euro area," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 102, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  5. Roman Horvath, 2007. "The Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time: A Predictor for Future Inflation?," Working Papers 2007/4, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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