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Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority

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  • Choi, Woon Gyu

Abstract

This paper estimates a policy rule that explains the sign and the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) discount rate changes. It sets out a two-sided Type II Tobit model and develops a procedure for its estimation, considering the discrete and censored nature of the changes. The results suggest that the Fed has conducted discount rate policy counter-cyclically to influence output and to curb inflation, and that the Fed's response to policy indicators varies over monetary regimes. Furthermore, consistency is found between the model prediction of the discount rate change and a classification based on whether the change is technical or non-technical.

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  • Choi, Woon Gyu, 1999. "Estimating the Discount Rate Policy Reaction Function of the Monetary Authority," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 379-401, July-Aug..
    • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:14:y:1999:i:4:p:379-401
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    Cited by:

    1. Ho-Chuan Huang & Shu-Chin Lin, 2006. "Time-varying discrete monetary policy reaction functions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 449-464.
    2. Bayar, Omer, 2018. "Weak instruments and estimated monetary policy rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 308-317.
    3. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor rules in a structural VAR," Working Papers 2010-005, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Mr. Yongseung Jung & Woon Gyu Choi, 2003. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with Habit Formation and Nominal Rigidities," IMF Working Papers 2003/005, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Measuring Interest Rates as Determined by Thrift and Productivity," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(1), pages 167-195, May.
    6. Podpiera, Jirí, 2008. "The role of ad hoc factors in policy rate settings," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1003-1010, September.
    7. Jiri Podpiera, 2006. "The Role of Policy Rule Misspecification in Monetary Policy Inertia Debate," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp315, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    8. Muhammad Yasir, 2015. "Investigating the Real Shocks in the Discount Rate of Pakistan," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 9(1), pages 10-14, Spring.
    9. Carstensen Kai, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    10. Jiri Podpiera, 2008. "Policy Rate Decisions and Unbiased Parameter Estimation in Conventionally Estimated Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers 2008/2, Czech National Bank.
    11. Jesus Otero & Manuel Ramirez, 2009. "Modelling the monetary policy reaction function of the Colombian Central Bank," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 3-11.
    12. Kai Carstensen, 2006. "Estimating the ECB Policy Reaction Function," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(1), pages 1-34, February.
    13. Fred IKLAGA, 2009. "Are Gap Models Policy Consistent? A Quarterly Prediction Model for Monetary Policy In Nigeria," EcoMod2009 21500042, EcoMod.
    14. Bayar Omer, 2015. "An ordered probit analysis of monetary policy inertia," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 705-726, July.
    15. Horváth, Roman, 2009. "The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 71-81, January.
    16. Roman Horváth, 2007. "Estimating Time-Varying Policy Neutral Rate in Real Time," Working Papers IES 2007/01, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jan 2007.

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