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Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area

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Author Info
Küster, Keith
Wieland, Volker

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Abstract

In this paper, we examine the cost of insurance against model uncertainty for the euro area considering four alternative reference models, all of which are used for policy analysis at the ECB. We find that maximal insurance across this model range in terms of a Minimax policy comes at moderate costs in terms of lower expected performance. We extract priors that would rationalize the Minimax policy from a Bayesian perspective. These priors indicate that full insurance is strongly oriented towards the model with highest baseline losses. Furthermore, this policy is not as tolerant towards small perturbations of policy parameters as the Bayesian policy rule. We propose to strike a compromise and use preferences for policy design that allow for intermediate degrees of ambiguity-aversion. These preferences allow the specification of priors but also give extra weight to the worst uncertain outcomes in a given context.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 4956.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4956

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Related research
Keywords: euro area; minimax; model uncertainty; monetary policy rules; robustness;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2008. "Insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area," Working Papers 08-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. John B. Taylor & Volker Wieland, 2009. "Surprising Comparative Properties of Monetary Models: Results from a New Data Base," NBER Working Papers 14849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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