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On the Relation between Robust and Bayesian Decision Making

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  • Adam, Klaus

Abstract

This paper compares Bayesian decision theory with robust decision theory where the decision maker optimizes with respect to the worst state realization. For a class of robust decision problems there exists a sequence of Bayesian decision problems whose solution converges towards the robust solution. It is shown that the limiting Bayesian problem displays infinite risk aversion and that decisions are insensitive (robust) to the precise assignment of prior probabilities. This holds independent from whether the preference for robustness is global or restricted to local perturbations around some reference model.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam, Klaus, 2003. "On the Relation between Robust and Bayesian Decision Making," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200302
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    Cited by:

    1. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric R., 2014. "Model uncertainty and intertemporal tax smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 289-314.
    2. Renaud, J. & Thibault, J. & Lanouette, R. & Kiss, L.N. & Zaras, K. & Fonteix, C., 2007. "Comparison of two multicriteria decision aid methods: Net Flow and Rough Set Methods in a high yield pulping process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(3), pages 1418-1432, March.
    3. Robert Tetlow & Peter von zur Muehlen, 2004. "Avoiding Nash Inflation: Bayesian and Robus Responses to Model Uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(4), pages 869-899, October.
    4. Hauk, Esther & Lanteri, Andrea & Marcet, Albert, 2021. "Optimal policy with general signal extraction," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 54-86.
    5. Filippo Altissimo & Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2006. "On Robust Monetary Policy," Chapters, in: Lawrence R. Klein (ed.), Long-run Growth and Short-run Stabilization, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Keith Kuester & Volker Wieland, 2010. "Insurance Policies for Monetary Policy in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(4), pages 872-912, June.
    7. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 468-487.
    8. Bigio, Saki, 2010. "Learning under fear of floating," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1923-1950, October.
    9. Pauline Barrieu & Sinclair Desgagn�, 2009. "Economic policy when models disagree," GRI Working Papers 4, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    10. Rama Cont, 2006. "Model uncertainty and its impact on the pricing of derivative instruments," Post-Print halshs-00002695, HAL.
    11. Pauline Barrieu & Bernard Sinclair-Desgagné, 2009. "Economic Policy when Models Disagree," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-03, CIRANO.
    12. Peter Tillmann, 2009. "Optimal Monetary Policy with an Uncertain Cost Channel," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(5), pages 885-906, August.
    13. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy," Working Paper 2006/10, Norges Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    robust decision theory; uncertainty aversion; risk aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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