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Stochastic Optimization and Worst-Case Analysis in Monetary Policy Design

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  • Stan Žaković
  • Volker Wieland

    ()

  • Berc Rustem

Abstract

In this paper, we show how stochastic optimisation and worst-case analysis can be used together in order to provide central banks with a straightforward tool for selecting a policy rule that limits worst-case outcomes while at the same time providing reasonably good performance on average. We conduct this analysis within a simple estimated model of the euro area with adaptive expectations. In particular, we consider not only uncertainty due to additive shocks but also uncertainty with respect to all the parameters of the model, including multiplicative parameters and potential nonlinearities in the inflation-output relationship. In terms of monetary policy we focus on the optimal choice of response coefficients in a Taylor-style interest rate rule that responds to inflation and the output gap and we evaluate the performance of this type of rule by means of a standard quadratic loss function in output and inflation. We then compare the rules obtained by the two different methods by comparing their respective performance in the worst-case scenario as well as the overall expected performance given the empirical probability distributions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Society for Computational Economics in its journal Computational Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 329-347

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Handle: RePEc:kap:compec:v:30:y:2007:i:4:p:329-347

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=100248
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Keywords: worst-case analysis; robust control; minimax; monetary policy rules; euro area;

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References

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  1. Laurence M. Ball, 1999. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 127-156 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
  3. Karakitsos, E. & Rustem, B., 1984. "Optimally derived fixed rules and indicators," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 33-64, October.
  4. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  6. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
  7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," NBER Working Papers 5797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 2000. "Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy," NBER Working Papers 7490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Peter Isard & Douglas Laxton & Ann-Charlotte Eliasson, 1999. "Simple Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 537-577, November.
  10. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Monetary policy evaluation with noisy information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 605-631, April.
  11. Lars Hansen & Thomas Sargent & Thomas Tallarini, . "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," GSIA Working Papers 1997-51, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  12. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  14. Peter von zur Muehlen, 2001. "Activist vs. non-activist monetary policy: optimal rules under extreme uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. repec:cup:macdyn:v:6:y:2002:i:1:p:111-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  17. Rustem, Berc, 1994. "Stochastic and robust control of nonlinear economic systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 304-318, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kuester, Keith & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "Insurance policies for monetary policy in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0480, European Central Bank.
  2. Gadi Barlevy, 2009. "Policymaking under uncertainty: Gradualism and robustness," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 38-55.
  3. Kai Leitemo & Ulf Söderstrom, 2005. "Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Working Papers 290, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  4. Paul D. McNelis & Guay Lim, 2006. "Inflation Targeting, Learning and Q Volatility in Small Open Economies," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 104, Society for Computational Economics.
  5. Esteban-Bravo, Mercedes & Vidal-Sanz, Jose M., 2007. "Worst-case estimation for econometric models with unobservable components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3330-3354, April.
  6. Q. Farooq Akram & Yakov Ben-Haim & Øyvind Eitrheim, 2006. "Managing uncertainty through robust-satisficing monetary policy," Working Paper 2006/10, Norges Bank.
  7. Arnulfo Rodriguez, 2004. "Robust Control: A Note on the Timing of Model Uncertainty," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 209-221, July.

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