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Policymaking under uncertainty: Gradualism and robustness

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  • Gadi Barlevy

Abstract

Some economists have recommended the robust control approach to the formulation of monetary policy under uncertainty when policymakers cannot attach probabilities to the scenarios that concern them. One critique of this approach is that it seems to imply aggressive policies under uncertainty, contrary to the conventional wisdom of acting more gradually in an uncertain environment. This article argues that aggressiveness is not a generic feature of robust control.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 38-55

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2009:i:qii:p:38-55:n:v.33no.2

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References

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  1. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Monetary policy under uncertainty," Speech 327, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. S. Zakovic & V. Wieland & B. Rustem, 2004. "Stochastic Optimisation and Worst Case Analysis in Monetary Policy Design," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 213, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2001. "Recursive Multiple-Priors," RCER Working Papers 485, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Rustichini, Aldo, 2006. "Dynamic variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 4-44, May.
  5. Manski, Charles F., 2000. "Identification problems and decisions under ambiguity: Empirical analysis of treatment response and normative analysis of treatment choice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 415-442, April.
  6. Giannoni, Marc P., 2002. "Does Model Uncertainty Justify Caution? Robust Optimal Monetary Policy In A Forward-Looking Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 111-144, February.
  7. Christopher A. Sims, 2001. "Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 51-54, May.
  8. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:oct19 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Gadi Barlevy, 2010. "Robustness and macroeconomic policy," Working Paper Series WP-2010-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
  3. Ellison, Martin & Sargent, Thomas J, 2009. "A defence of the FOMC," CEPR Discussion Papers 7510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Martin Ellison & Thomas J. Sargent, 2012. "A Defense Of The Fomc," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(4), pages 1047-1065, November.
  4. Christian Aubin & Ibrahima Diouf & Dominique Pepin, 2010. "Inertie De La Politique Monétaire Dans La Zone Euro : Le Rôle De L'Hétérogénéité," Post-Print hal-00960030, HAL.
  5. Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix & Lewis, Vivien, 2012. "Robust monetary policy in a model with financial distress," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 318-325.
  6. Julian A. Parra-Polania & Carmiña O. Vargas, 2014. "Changes in GDP’s measurement error volatility and response of the monetary policy rate: two approaches," Borradores de Economia 814, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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