IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v11y2019i1p89-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times

Author

Listed:
  • Axelle Ferriere
  • Anastasios G. Karantounias

Abstract

This paper analyzes optimal fiscal policy with ambiguity aversion and endogenous government spending. We show that, without ambiguity, optimal surplus-to-output ratios are acyclical and that there is no rationale for either reduction or further accumulation of public debt. In contrast, ambiguity about the cycle can generate optimally policies that resemble "austerity" measures. Optimal policy prescribes higher taxes in adverse times and front-loaded fiscal consolidations that lead to a balanced primary budget in the long-run. This is the case when interest rates are sufficiently responsive to cyclical shocks, that is, when the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low.

Suggested Citation

  • Axelle Ferriere & Anastasios G. Karantounias, 2019. "Fiscal Austerity in Ambiguous Times," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 89-131, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:89-131
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20160085
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20160085
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=8548
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=pcTmjN7a3mLFAysKlEHi2hvIWwVu4VXs
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=N4r3imV2jJfTqCfJr_bBqRU_RAhqBzEZ
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ambler, Steve & Paquet, Alain, 1996. "Fiscal spending shocks, endogenous government spending, and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(1-3), pages 237-256.
    2. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2015. "Sovereign Default Risk and Uncertainty Premia," Papers 1512.06960, arXiv.org.
    3. Huixin Bi & Eric M. Leeper & Campbell Leith, 2013. "Uncertain Fiscal Consolidations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 31-63, February.
    4. Larry G. Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2010. "Ambiguity and Asset Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 315-346, December.
    5. Bi, Huixin, 2012. "Sovereign default risk premia, fiscal limits, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 389-410.
    6. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    7. Tomasz Strzalecki, 2011. "Axiomatic Foundations of Multiplier Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 47-73, January.
    8. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Robust Control and Model Uncertainty," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 5, pages 145-154, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "International Portfolio Allocation under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 144-189, January.
    10. Rüdiger Bachmann & Jinhui H. Bai, 2013. "Public consumption over the business cycle," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(3), pages 417-451, November.
    11. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2014. "Ambiguous Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(8), pages 2368-2399, August.
    12. Karen Kopecky & Richard Suen, 2010. "Finite State Markov-chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 701-714, July.
    13. Romei, Federica, 2015. "Need for (the Right) Speed: the Timing and Composition of Public Debt Deleveraging," Economics Working Papers MWP2015/11, European University Institute.
    14. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai, 2017. "Fiscal austerity during debt crises," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 657-673, December.
    15. Guvenen, Fatih, 2006. "Reconciling conflicting evidence on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution: A macroeconomic perspective," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1451-1472, October.
    16. Pierpaolo Benigno & Gauti B. Eggertsson & Federica Romei, 2020. "Dynamic Debt Deleveraging and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 310-350, April.
    17. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    18. Cosmin Ilut & Rosen Valchev & Nicolas Vincent, 2020. "Paralyzed by Fear: Rigid and Discrete Pricing Under Demand Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 1899-1938, September.
    19. Croce, Mariano M. & Nguyen, Thien T. & Schmid, Lukas, 2012. "The market price of fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 401-416.
    20. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "A Quartet of Semigroups for Model Specification, Robustness, Prices of Risk, and Model Detection," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 4, pages 83-143, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Alessandro Dovis & Mikhail Golosov & Ali Shourideh, 2016. "Political Economy of Sovereign Debt: A Theory of Cycles of Populism and Austerity," NBER Working Papers 21948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J Sargent, 2014. "Doubts or Variability?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: UNCERTAINTY WITHIN ECONOMIC MODELS, chapter 7, pages 217-256, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    23. David R. Stockman, 2001. "Balanced-Budget Rules: Welfare Loss and Optimal Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 438-459, July.
    24. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    25. Anmol Bhandari & David Evans & Mikhail Golosov & Thomas J. Sargent, 2013. "Taxes, Debts, and Redistributions with Aggregate Shocks," NBER Working Papers 19470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Atkinson, A. B. & Stiglitz, J. E., 1972. "The structure of indirect taxation and economic efficiency," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 97-119, April.
    27. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2012. "Robust animal spirits," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 738-750.
    28. Ni, Shawn, 1995. "An empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 593-605, December.
    29. , G., 2013. "Managing pessimistic expectations and fiscal policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 8(1), January.
    30. Gadi Barlevy, 2009. "Policymaking under uncertainty: Gradualism and robustness," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 38-55.
    31. Paul Klein & Per Krusell & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2008. "Time-Consistent Public Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 789-808.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Steve Raymond & Lukas Schmid & Anastasios Karantounias & Mariano Croce, 2017. "A Tax Plan for Endogenous Innovation," 2017 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. repec:fip:a00001:89442 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Saito, Yuta, 2020. "Bequeathing in ambiguous times," MPRA Paper 102718, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Peter Claeys, 2017. "Uncertainty spillover and policy reactions," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 64-77, April.
    7. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:31-45 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karantounias, Anastasios G., 2023. "Doubts about the model and optimal policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    2. Cosmin L. Ilut & Martin Schneider, 2022. "Modeling Uncertainty as Ambiguity: a Review," NBER Working Papers 29915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Anastasios Karantounias & Axelle Ferriere, 2014. "Debt and government spending in ambiguous times," 2014 Meeting Papers 1129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Arisoy, Y. Eser & Naik, Narayan Y., 2017. "Volatility of aggregate volatility and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 491-510.
    5. Jaroslav Borovicka, 2016. "Identifying ambiguity shocks in business cycle models using survey data," 2016 Meeting Papers 1615, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. repec:fip:a00001:89442 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bennett, Federico & Montamat, Giselle & Roch, Francisco, 2023. "Robust optimal macroprudential policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    8. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2019. "Generalized entropy and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 312-343.
    9. Kwon, Hyosung & Miao, Jianjun, 2017. "Three types of robust Ramsey problems in a linear-quadratic framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 211-231.
    10. Chahrour, Ryan & Svec, Justin, 2014. "Optimal capital taxation and consumer uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 178-198.
    11. Luo, Yulei & Nie, Jun & Young, Eric, 2015. "Robust Permanent Income in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 63985, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Massimo Guidolin & Francesca Rinaldi, 2013. "Ambiguity in asset pricing and portfolio choice: a review of the literature," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 74(2), pages 183-217, February.
    13. Claudio Michelacci & Luigi Paciello, 2020. "Aggregate Risk or Aggregate Uncertainty? Evidence from UK Households," EIEF Working Papers Series 2006, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Apr 2020.
    14. Szőke, Bálint, 2022. "Estimating robustness," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    15. Bidder, R.M. & Smith, M.E., 2018. "Doubts and variability: A robust perspective on exotic consumption series," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 689-712.
    16. Javier Andres & Oscar Arce & Dominik Thaler & Carlos Thomas, 2020. "When Fiscal Consolidation Meets Private Deleveraging," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 214-233, July.
    17. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2021. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a new Keynesian model with housing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    18. Jeleva, Meglena & Tallon, Jean-Marc, 2016. "Ambiguïté, comportements et marchés financiers," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 92(1-2), pages 351-383, Mars-Juin.
    19. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    20. Federico Bennett & Giselle Montamat & Francisco Roch, 2022. "Robust Optimal Macroprudential Policy," Working Papers 141, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    21. Leyla Jianyu Han & Kenneth Kasa, 2019. "Ambiguity and Information Processing in a Model of Intermediary Asset Pricing," Discussion Papers dp19-04, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:89-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.